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Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation

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Abstract

Global supply chain disruptions following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the rapid rise in U.S. inflation over the past two years. Evidence suggests that supply chain pressures pushed up the cost of inputs for goods production and the public’s expectations of higher future prices. These factors accounted for about 60% of the surge in U.S. inflation beginning in early 2021. Supply chain pressures began easing substantially in mid-2022, contributing to the slowdown in inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Liu & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2023. "Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(14), pages 1-6, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:96373
    Note: Pacific Basin Notes are published occasionally by the Center for Pacific Basin Studies.
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    1. Belai Abbai & Ozge Akinci & Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Ruth Cesar Heymann & Lawrence Lin & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The Global Supply Side of Inflationary Pressures," Liberty Street Economics 20220128, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Huang, Kevin X. D. & Liu, Zheng, 2001. "Production chains and general equilibrium aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 437-462, October.
    3. Reuven Glick & Noah Kouchekinia & Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2021. "Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(19), pages 1-06, July.
    4. Finck, David & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain disruptions," IMFS Working Paper Series 178, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    5. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(15), pages 1-06, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Gas Prices and the Macroeconomy," GREDEG Working Papers 2025-20, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France, revised Jul 2026.
    2. Bilgin, Nuriye Melisa, 2025. "Inflation diffusion through supply chains," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    3. Youssef, Meriem & Gallas, Salma & Urom, Christian, 2026. "Cryptocurrency price dynamics during supply chain disruptions: A quantile-on-quantile connectedness approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Weber, Isabella M. & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & van ’t Klooster, Jens, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: How cost shocks facilitate price hikes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 690-712.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca & Barry E. Jones, 2025. "Broad Divisia Money, Supply Pressures, and U.S. Inflation Following the COVID-19 Recession," NBER Working Papers 34017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Weber, Isabella & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & Klooster, Jens van’t, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: how cost shocks facilitate price hikes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128231, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Kevin J. Lansing, 2024. "Demand versus Supply: Which is More Important for Inflation?," Working Paper Series 2025-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatilities, and Macroeconomic Transmission," LEM Papers Series 2025/20, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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