IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/96373.html

Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Global supply chain disruptions following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the rapid rise in U.S. inflation over the past two years. Evidence suggests that supply chain pressures pushed up the cost of inputs for goods production and the public’s expectations of higher future prices. These factors accounted for about 60% of the surge in U.S. inflation beginning in early 2021. Supply chain pressures began easing substantially in mid-2022, contributing to the slowdown in inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Liu & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2023. "Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(14), pages 1-6, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:96373
    Note: Pacific Basin Notes are published occasionally by the Center for Pacific Basin Studies.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2023-14.pdf
    File Function: Full text - article PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Belai Abbai & Ozge Akinci & Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Ruth Cesar Heymann & Lawrence Lin & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The Global Supply Side of Inflationary Pressures," Liberty Street Economics 20220128, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Huang, Kevin X. D. & Liu, Zheng, 2001. "Production chains and general equilibrium aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 437-462, October.
    3. Reuven Glick & Noah Kouchekinia & Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2021. "Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(19), pages 1-06, July.
    4. Finck, David & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain disruptions," IMFS Working Paper Series 178, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    5. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(15), pages 1-06, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatility and Macroeconomic Transmission," GREDEG Working Papers 2025-20, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    2. Weber, Isabella M. & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & van ’t Klooster, Jens, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: How cost shocks facilitate price hikes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 690-712.
    3. Weber, Isabella & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & Klooster, Jens van’t, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: how cost shocks facilitate price hikes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128231, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Kevin J. Lansing, 2024. "Demand versus Supply: Which is More Important for Inflation?," Working Paper Series 2025-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Understanding Gas Price Shocks: Elasticities, Volatilities, and Macroeconomic Transmission," LEM Papers Series 2025/20, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Jones, Barry E., 2025. "Broad Divisia money, supply pressures, and U.S. inflation following the COVID-19 recession," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29, pages 1-1, January.
    7. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garcia-Revelo, José & Levieuge, Grégory & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2025. "Revisiting 15 years of unusual transatlantic monetary policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2024. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Marco Hoeberichts & Ad Stokman, 2010. "Price setting behaviour in the Netherlands: results of a survey," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 135-149.
    4. Zhou, Youcheng & Li, Bingchen & Zhao, Mengqi, 2025. "Asymmetric association between supply chain bottlenecks and consumer energy prices: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Latorre, Concepción & Gómez-Plana, Antonio G., 2010. "Multinationals in the Motor vehicles industry: A general equilibrium analysis for a Transition Economy," Conference papers 332025, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2011. "Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1179-1213, November.
    7. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A Yildirim, "undated". "Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-01, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    8. Roson, Roberto & Sartori, Martina, 2014. "Why can sectoral shocks lead to sizable macroeconomic fluctuations? Assessing alternative theories by means of stochastic simulation with a general equilibrium model," Conference papers 332434, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2008. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 627-666, June.
    10. Levin, Andrew T. & López-Salido, José David & Yun, Tack, 2007. "Strategic Complementarities and Optimal Monetary Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1355, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    11. Marco Lo Duca & Diego Moccero & Fabio Parlapiano, 2024. "The impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy shocks on the default risk of the euro-area corporate sector," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1460, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2008. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 627-666, June.
    13. Engin Kara & Huw Dixon, 2005. "Persistence and Nominal Inertia in a Generalized Taylor Economy: How Longer Contracts Dominate Shorter Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 87, Society for Computational Economics.
    14. Kevin X. D. Huang & Jonathan L. Willis, 2018. "Sectoral Interactions and Monetary Policy under Costly Price Adjustments," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 337-374, November.
    15. repec:ags:aaea22:343998 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Бирликбай Алишер // Birlikbay Alisher & Сейдахметов Ансар // Seidakhmetov Ansar, 2023. "Декомпозиция продовольственной инфляции на факторы спроса и предложения. // Decomposing the basket of goods into supply- and demand-driven categories to analyze food inflation in Kazakhstan," Working Papers #2023-10, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    17. Nassar S. Al-Nassar & Abdulrahman A. Albahouth, 2023. "Inflation Spillovers among Advanced and Emerging Economies: Evidence from the G20 Group," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, April.
    18. Schenkelberg, Heike, 2011. "Why are Prices Sticky? Evidence from Business Survey Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 12158, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    19. Serdar Birinci & Yusuf Mercan & Kurt See, 2024. "Mismatch Unemployment During COVID-19 and the Post-Pandemic Labor Shortages," Research Working Paper RWP 24-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    20. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2004. "Inflation Persistence Revisited," Working Papers 518, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    21. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The propagation of monetary policy shocks in a heterogeneous production economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-22.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:96373. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.