IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/92872.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?

Author

Listed:
  • Reuven Glick
  • Noah Kouchekinia
  • Sylvain Leduc
  • Zheng Liu

Abstract

Household surveys indicate that consumers expect higher inflation this year than in recent years, as the U.S. economy rebounds from the deep recession. This has coincided with a surge in commodity prices, as strong demand for goods like gas, food, and construction materials is catching producers with low supplies. Evidence suggests that households respond to commodity price increases by raising their expectations of future inflation. However, since surges in commodity prices are transitory, their effects on inflation expectations—particularly long-term expectations—are modest and short-lived.

Suggested Citation

  • Reuven Glick & Noah Kouchekinia & Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2021. "Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(19), pages 1-06, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:92872
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2021-19.pdf
    File Function: Full text - article PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2021. "Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1615-1639.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Reuven Glick & Sylvain Leduc & Mollie Pepper, 2022. "Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(21), pages 1-6, August.
    2. Mary C. Daly, 2023. "Monetary Policy: Progress Is Not Victory," Speech 97128, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Zheng Liu & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2023. "Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(14), pages 1-6, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," Working Papers 42, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    2. Olli-Pekka Hilmola, 2021. "Inflation and Hyperinflation Countries in 2018–2020: Risks of Different Assets and Foreign Trade," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2023. "Energy prices and inflation expectations: Evidence from households and firms," Discussion Papers 28/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Pradhan, Manoj, 2023. "A snapshot of Central Bank (two year) forecasting: a mixed picture," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118680, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Becker, Christoph & Dürsch, Peter & Eife, Thomas A. & Glas, Alexander, 2023. "Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-072, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Chris Campos & Michael McMain & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2022. "Understanding Which Prices Affect Inflation Expectations," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2022(06), pages 1-7, April.
    7. Davig, Troy & Foerster, Andrew, 2023. "Communicating Monetary Policy Rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. James Mitchell & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 23-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Michael Weber & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 326-368, March.
    10. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gondhi, Naveen, 2023. "Rational inattention, misallocation, and the aggregate economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 50-75.
    13. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Tambalotti, Andrea & Topa, Giorgio, 2022. "Subjective intertemporal substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 118-133.
    14. Afunts, Geghetsik & Cato, Misina & Schmidt, Tobias, 2023. "Inflation Expectations in the Wake of the War in Ukraine," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277577, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    16. Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Lena Dräger, 2023. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public," CESifo Working Paper Series 10713, CESifo.
    18. Michael Weber, 2022. "Subjective inflation expectations of households," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 217-221, October.
    19. Karadi, Peter & Amann, Juergen & Bachiller, Javier Sánchez & Seiler, Pascal & Wursten, Jesse, 2023. "Price setting on the two sides of the Atlantic - Evidence from supermarket scanner data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 1-17.
    20. Bouche Paul, & Gerardin Mathilde, & Gautier Erwan, Savignac Frédérique & Savignac Frédérique., 2021. "Measuring firms’ inflation expectations [Mesurer les anticipations d’inflation des entreprises]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 236.
    21. Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Malliaris, Mary E., 2023. "Where is the Euro Area headed? Restoration of price stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 848-863.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:92872. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.