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Are Young College Graduates Losing Their Edge in the Job Market?

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Abstract

High school graduates in their twenties have consistently experienced a higher unemployment rate than college graduates in the same age range. However, the unemployment gap between the two education groups has recently narrowed, reaching its lowest level since the late 1970s. This Economic Commentary shows that this narrowing coincides with a decades-long decline, one that began around 2000, in the job-finding rate among young college graduates.

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  • Alexander Cline & Barış Kaymak, 2025. "Are Young College Graduates Losing Their Edge in the Job Market?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(14), pages 1-10, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:102169
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202514
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    2. Alexander Cline & Barış Kaymak, 2025. "Demand for College Labor in the 21st Century," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(04), pages 1-12, March.
    3. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    4. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
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