Why Central Bankers Should Disclose: Interest Rate Forecast
This paper deals with theoretical and empirical dimension of publishing interest rates projections by central banks. Its first goal is to review arguments in favor of and against this decision and to illustrate the debate using experience of four central banks which publish or used to publish interest rates forecast. The second objective is to evaluate the Czech National Bank’s capability to efficiently use publishing of its interest rates forecasts to increase further its transparency, accountability and credibility. The authors argue that (i) the CNB meets all requirements needed for making its interest rate forecast public; (ii) more specifically, they do not find any evidence of significantly worse CNB’s performance in interest rates forecasting compared to other institutions; (iii) it is not clear whether the risk assessment in combination with verbal description of interest rate forecast currently used has always been sufficiently precise guidance for the market participants; (iv) after the CNB starts publishing interest rates forecasts in 2008, market expectations will probably move closer to the CNB’s view which should in turn enhance accountability and credibility of the CNB’s forecasts and improve the efficiency of its monetary policy conduct at all.
Volume (Year): 57 (2007)
Issue (Month): 11-12 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, .
"The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia,"
Borradores de Economia
202, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:57:y:2007:i:11-12:p:558-576. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.