IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eso/journl/v39y2008i1p55-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Opening and Closing Asymmetry: Empirical Analysis from ISE Xetra

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Kelly

    (Dept. of Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Co. Kildare)

Abstract

Overnight news yields difficulties for price discovery at market opening culminating in additional return volatility. Biais et al. (2007) show opening prices are sensitive to order flow from the pre-trading session. We investigate the existence of volatility asymmetry between opening and closing returns and trader over-reaction on the Irish Stock Exchange (ISE). Opening on the ISE follows a non-transparent pre-trading session. We estimate opening returns are 10 per cent more volatile than closing returns. This is significantly smaller compared to other exchanges, such as LSE. The LSE operates under a transparent pre-trading session, which is susceptible to order flow manipulation. We implement an ARMA(1,1) framework to investigate the speed of trader reaction to news. Over-reaction is recorded at the morning auction but is smaller in magnitude when compared to international markets with transparent pre-trading and ‘non-binding’ orders. The level of price reversal bolsters the over-reaction argument. We estimate a 30 per cent reversal of overnight returns with one third taking place in the first thirty minutes of trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kelly, 2008. "Opening and Closing Asymmetry: Empirical Analysis from ISE Xetra," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 55-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:39:y:2008:i:1:p:55-78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esr.ie/Vol39_1/04%20Kelly.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Knif, Johan & Pynnonen, Seppo, 1999. "Local and global price memory of international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 129-147, April.
    2. Foucault, Thierry, 1998. "Order Flow Composition and Trading Costs in Dynamic Limit Order Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1817, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    4. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-1130, December.
    5. Madhavan, Ananth, 1992. "Trading Mechanisms in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 607-641, June.
    6. Deniz Ozenbas & Robert A. Schwartz & Robert A. Wood, 2002. "Volatility in US and European Equity Markets: An Assessment of Market Quality," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 437-461, November.
    7. Theobald, Michael & Yallup, Peter, 2004. "Determining security speed of adjustment coefficients," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 75-96, January.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    9. Mandelbrot, Benoit B, 1972. "Correction of an Error in "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices" (1963)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(4), pages 542-543, October.
    10. Charles Cao & Eric Ghysels & Frank Hatheway, 2000. "Price Discovery without Trading: Evidence from the Nasdaq Preopening," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1339-1365, June.
    11. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
    12. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia, 2005. "Explaining volatility and serial correlation in opening and closing returns: A study of the FT-30 components," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, August.
    13. Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May.
    14. Pagano, Michael S. & Schwartz, Robert A., 2003. "A closing call's impact on market quality at Euronext Paris," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 439-484, June.
    15. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    16. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1995. "Overreaction, Delayed Reaction, and Contrarian Profits," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 973-993.
    18. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1989. "Market microstructure and price discovery on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 341-370, November.
    19. repec:bla:intfin:v:5:y:2002:i:3:p:437-61 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Brusco, Sandro & Manzano, Carolina & Tapia, Mikel, 2003. "Price discovery in the pre-opening period. theory and evidence from the madrid stock exchange," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb035814, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    21. Madhavan, Ananth & Panchapagesan, Venkatesh, 2000. "Price Discovery in Auction Markets: A Look Inside the Black Box," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 627-658.
    22. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1987. "Trading Mechanisms and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 533-553, July.
    23. Bruno Biais & Pierre Hillion & Chester Spatt, 1999. "Price Discovery and Learning during the Preopening Period in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(6), pages 1218-1248, December.
    24. Damodaran, Aswath, 1993. "A Simple Measure of Price Adjustment Coefficients," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 387-400, March.
    25. Theobald, Michael & Yallup, Peter, 1998. "Measuring cash-futures temporal effects in the UK using partial adjustment factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 221-243, February.
    26. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Biais & Christophe Bisière & Sébastien Pouget, 2014. "Equilibrium Discovery and Preopening Mechanisms in an Experimental Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(3), pages 753-769, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patricia Chelley Steeley & Brian Lucey, 2008. "The Microstructure of the Irish Stock Market," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(3-4), pages 279-311, September.
    2. Sangram Keshari Jena & Ashutosh Dash, 2015. "Is call auction efficient for better price discovery?," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(8), pages 102-113, August.
    3. Andrea Gaunersdorfer & Cars Hommes, 2007. "A Nonlinear Structural Model for Volatility Clustering," Springer Books, in: Gilles Teyssière & Alan P. Kirman (ed.), Long Memory in Economics, pages 265-288, Springer.
    4. Park, Seongkyu “Gilbert” & Suen, Wing & Wan, Kam-Ming, 2022. "Call auction design and closing price manipulation: Evidence from the Hong Kong stock exchange," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Xiao, Xijuan & Yamamoto, Ryuichi, 2020. "Price discovery, order submission, and tick size during preopen period," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Biais, Bruno & Glosten, Larry & Spatt, Chester, 2005. "Market microstructure: A survey of microfoundations, empirical results, and policy implications," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 217-264, May.
    7. Randi Naes & Johannes A. Skjeltorp, 2003. "Strategic Investor Behaviour and the Volume-Volatility Relation in Equity Markets," Working Paper 2003/9, Norges Bank.
    8. Theobald, Michael & Yallup, Peter, 2005. "Intradaily volatility and adjustment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 407-424, December.
    9. Anagnostidis, Panagiotis & Kanas, Angelos & Papachristou, George, 2015. "Information revelation in the Greek exchange opening call: Daily and intraday evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-184.
    10. Erie Febrian & Aldrin Herwany, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200911, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2009.
    11. Choi, Jaehyung, 2012. "Spontaneous symmetry breaking of arbitrage," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3206-3218.
    12. Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Eric Renault, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-49, CIRANO.
    13. David M. Frankel, 2008. "Adaptive Expectations And Stock Market Crashes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(2), pages 595-619, May.
    14. Donatien Hainaut & Franck Moraux, 2019. "A switching self-exciting jump diffusion process for stock prices," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 267-306, June.
    15. Michele Vodret & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence Tóth & Michael Benzaquen, 2023. "Microfounding GARCH models and beyond: a Kyle-inspired model with adaptive agents," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(3), pages 599-625, July.
    16. Camilleri, Silvio John, 2015. "Do call auctions curtail price volatility? Evidence from the National Stock Exchange of India," MPRA Paper 95301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    18. Sam Howison & David Lamper, 2001. "Trading volume in models of financial derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 119-135.
    19. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    20. Jaehyung Choi, 2011. "Spontaneous symmetry breaking of arbitrage," Papers 1107.5122, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2012.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:39:y:2008:i:1:p:55-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aedin Doris (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.esr.ie .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.