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Adaptación al cambio climático y sus efectos en la economía de los hogares rurales mexicanos productores de alimentos

Author

Listed:
  • Alan Martín Hernández-Solano

    (Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas de la UNAM.)

  • Véronique Sophie Avila-Foucat

    (Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

Abstract

En este artículo, se analizan los posibles impactos del Cambio Climático (CC) y de sus medidas de adaptación en el superávit/déficit comercial del maíz, en la producción y los ingresos reales de los hogares establecidos en la zona rural de México, a partir de un Modelo de Equilibrio General Aplicado y Microeconómico, y de estimaciones directas de los efectos del CC en los rendimientos del maíz obtenidas de la literatura relacionada. Los resultados encontrados muestran que el cambio climático reducirá el ingreso real rural en 6.23% y que afectará, en mayor medida, a la producción de maíz, al grado que la zona pasará de ser superavitaria a deficitaria. Además, se obtuvo que, si bien las medidas de adaptación analizadas ayudarán a reducir los efectos negativos del fenómeno, estas no los eliminarán totalmente. Climate change adaptation and its effects on the economy of the rural Mexican household food producersABSTRACTThis article analyzes the possible impacts of the climate change (CC) and its adaptation measures on the maize trade surplus/deficit, on the production, and on the real income of households established in rural Mexico. The analysis is based on an Applied and Microeconomic General Equilibrium Model and on the estimates of the direct effects of CC on maize yields obtained from the related literature. The results show that climate change will reduce the real rural income by 6.23% and will affect corn production to the extent that the area will change from being a surplus to a deficit. In addition, it is found that while the adaptation measures analyzed in the paper will help to reduce the negative effects of the phenomenon, they will not completely eliminate them.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Martín Hernández-Solano & Véronique Sophie Avila-Foucat, 2019. "Adaptación al cambio climático y sus efectos en la economía de los hogares rurales mexicanos productores de alimentos," Ensayos Revista de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, vol. 38(1), pages 61-86, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:38:y:2019:i:1:id:114
    DOI: 10.29105/ensayos38.1-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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