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Aplicación de un modelo de multiplicadores contables y de análisis estructural a políticas sociales seleccionadas en el estado de Nuevo León

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  • Marcos Esaú Domínguez Viera

Abstract

En este artículo se estudian los efectos económicos del Programa Oportunidades, el Programa de Atención al Adulto Mayor (PAAM) y el Programa de Apoyo para las Personas con Discapacidad (PAPD) en el estado de Nuevo León, a través de un Modelo Lineal, aplicado a una Matriz de Contabilidad Social del año 2004. Los principales resultados revelan que por cada peso que aporta, Oportunidades es el que más beneficia el ingreso de los hogares y la economía de Nuevo León. Considerando los montos totales transferidos, el PAAM genera mayores efectos económicos sobre todos los hogares y el Estado; y el PAPD es el más focalizado en los hogares pobres. El Análisis de trayectorias reveló que el ingreso transferido es gastado principalmente en Alimentos, bebidas y tabaco, que para producirlos se requiere de productos del sector de Agricultura, ganadería, silvicultura y pesca, que a su vez demanda el principal tipo de trabajo provisto por los hogares pobres: Trabajadores agrícolas. Palabras clave: programas sociales, matrices de contabilidad social, modelos lineales de flujo circular de la renta, multiplicadores contables, análisis de trayectorias.JEL classification: D57, H59, R15.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Esaú Domínguez Viera, 2009. "Aplicación de un modelo de multiplicadores contables y de análisis estructural a políticas sociales seleccionadas en el estado de Nuevo León," Ensayos Revista de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, vol. 28(2), pages 95-137, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:28:y:2009:i:2:id:92
    DOI: 10.29105/ensayos28.2-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • H59 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Other
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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