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Public debt and risk premium

Author

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  • Helder Ferreira de Mendonça
  • Marcio Pereira Duarte Nunes

Abstract

Purpose - This analysis seeks to deal with the emerging economies and to reveal that, if the fiscal authority is accountable with a policy that stabilizes the public debt/GDP ratio, the consequence is a low Treasury bond risk premium. Design/methodology/approach - Based on the purpose of this paper, a theoretical model is developed and empirical evidence through an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model, taking into account the Brazilian experience, is made. Findings - The findings denote that domestic variables are responsible for determining the risk premium. Moreover, a correct management of the public debt and the use of primary surplus targets make for a good strategy for promoting a fall in the Treasury bond risk premium. Practical implications - Primary surplus and public debt/GDP ratio can be used as important tools for mitigating the Treasury bond risk premium. Originality/value - The results of the paper give some new insights about the management of fiscal policy for developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Marcio Pereira Duarte Nunes, 2011. "Public debt and risk premium," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 203-217, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:38:y:2011:i:2:p:203-217
    DOI: 10.1108/01443581111128424
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alessandro Missale & Francesco Giavazzi & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2002. "How is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 443-469, September.
    2. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    3. Helder Ferreira de Mendonca & Rubens Teixeira da Silva, 2009. "Fiscal effect from inflation targeting: the Brazilian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 885-897.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    5. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & José Simão Filho, 2007. "Economic transparency and effectiveness of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(6), pages 497-514, November.
    6. Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2006. "The contagion effect of public debt on monetary policy," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 26(2), pages 231-238.
    8. Helder de Mendonca, 2007. "Towards credibility from inflation targeting: the Brazilian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2599-2615.
    9. Missale, Alessandro & Giavazzi, Francesco & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2002. " How Is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 443-469, September.
    10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    11. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2009. "Output‐inflation and unemployment‐inflation trade‐offs under inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(1), pages 66-82, January.
    12. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Globalization Hazard and Delayed Reform in Emerging Markets," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-31, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jane Mpapalika & Christopher Malikane, 2019. "The Determinants of Sovereign Risk Premium in African Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Helder de Mendonca, 2007. "Towards credibility from inflation targeting: the Brazilian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2599-2615.
    3. Bruno Pires Tiberto & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2016. "A Importância Da Administração Da Dívida Pública Para A Construção Da Reputação Fiscal E Redução Do Risco-País: Evidências Empíricas Para O Brasil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 025, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Larissa Batrancea, 2020. "The Influence of Public Debt on Performance: Lesson from Romanian Counties," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 809-814, December.
    5. Maria Cornachione Kula, 2014. "Are US state and local governments consumption smoothers?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(1), pages 87-100, January.
    6. Teplova, Tamara V. & Rodina, Victoria A., 2021. "The reinvestment risk premium in the valuation of British and Russian government bonds," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2012. "Macroeconomic environment, country risk and stock market performance: Evidence for Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1666-1678.
    8. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Almeida, André Filipe Guedes, 2016. "Compromisso fiscal, expectativas empresariais e produção industrial: o caso brasileiro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 70(2), July.

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