IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/ajemsp/ajems-11-2023-0436.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the extent of exchange rate risk pricing in equity markets: emerging versus developed economies

Author

Listed:
  • Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
  • Salifya Mpoha

Abstract

Purpose - This paper contributes to the literature on exchange rate exposure by assessing the extent to which exchange rate risk is priced in both African emerging and developed equity markets. It examines whether this risk leads to a premium or discount in market returns. The study uses the United States and South Africa as representatives for developed and emerging economies, respectively. Design/methodology/approach - The paper employs two-factor and three-factor conditional CAPM approaches with a two-stage estimation process. In the first stage, time-varying risk exposures are derived using the ICAPM model estimated through rolling regression. In the second stage, the impact of these risk exposures, particularly exchange rate risk exposure, is assessed on stock market returns using Generalized Linear Model (GLM) regression. Findings - Unlike previous studies that suggest exchange rate risk is not necessarily priced in the equity market due to hedging, this paper finds that exchange rate risk is indeed priced in both African and developed equity markets, albeit to different extents. The African equity market demands a higher premium compared to the developed equity market. Practical implications - The findings of this paper have significant implications for policymakers, asset managers, and investors. They provide insights for making more informed decisions, implementing effective risk management strategies, and fostering a more stable and appealing investment environment. Originality/value - To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the degree of exchange rate exposure in environments characterized by high currency volatility versus those with low volatility, all within the context of the conditional ICAPM model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Salifya Mpoha, 2024. "Assessing the extent of exchange rate risk pricing in equity markets: emerging versus developed economies," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(1), pages 148-159, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:ajemsp:ajems-11-2023-0436
    DOI: 10.1108/AJEMS-11-2023-0436
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/AJEMS-11-2023-0436/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/AJEMS-11-2023-0436/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/AJEMS-11-2023-0436?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim Hiang Liow, 2012. "Co‐movements and Correlations Across Asian Securitized Real Estate and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 97-129, March.
    2. Horst Entorf & Jochen Moebert & Katja Sonderhof, 2011. "The Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure of Nations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 339-353, April.
    3. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2006. "Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management: Issues and Approaches for Firms," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 4(2), pages 129-146.
    4. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Beirne, John & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2010. "Global and regional spillovers in emerging stock markets: A multivariate GARCH-in-mean analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 250-260, September.
    6. Smita Mahapatra & Saumitra N. Bhaduri, 2019. "Dynamics of the impact of currency fluctuations on stock markets in India: Assessing the pricing of exchange rate risks," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 19(1), pages 15-23, March.
    7. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-479, June.
    8. Ikeda, Shinsuke, 1991. "Arbitrage Asset Pricing under Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 447-455, March.
    9. Charles van Marrewijk, 2005. "Basic Exchange Rate Theories," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-024/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Ziobrowski, Brigitte J. & Ziobrowski, Alan J., 1995. "Exchange rate risk and internationally diversified portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 65-81, February.
    11. Doukas, John & Hall, Patricia H. & Lang, Larry H. P., 1999. "The pricing of currency risk in Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-20, January.
    12. Warren Bailey & Kirida Bhaopichitr, 2004. "How Important Was Silver? Some Evidence on Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Stock Returns in Colonial-Era Asia," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(1), pages 137-174, January.
    13. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
    14. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-345, July.
    15. Di Iorio, Amalia & Faff, Robert, 2002. "The pricing of foreign exchange risk in the Australian equities market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 77-95, January.
    16. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 363-376, September.
    17. Bae, Sung C. & Kwon, Taek Ho & Li, Mingsheng, 2008. "Foreign exchange rate exposure and risk premium in international investments: Evidence from American depositary receipts," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 165-179, April.
    18. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2003. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 603-621, December.
    19. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2000. "Time-varying market, interest rate, and exchange rate risk premia in the US commercial bank stock returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 397-420, December.
    20. Liang, Youguo & Mougoue', Mbodja, 1996. "The pricing of foreign exchange risk: Evidence from ADRS," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 377-385.
    21. Odili Okwuchukwu, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Stock Market Performance and Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 172-184, April.
    22. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 188-218, January.
    23. Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel & Cinca, Alfonso Novales, 2010. "State-uncertainty preferences and the risk premium in the exchange rate market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1043-1053, September.
    24. Marc Klau & San Sau Fung, 2006. "The new BIS effective exchange rate indices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    25. Brown, Stephen J. & Otsuki, Toshiyuki, 1993. "Risk premia in Pacific-Basin capital markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 235-261, September.
    26. Gordon M. Bodnar & M.H. Franco Wong, 2003. "Estimating Exchange Rate Exposures: Issues in Model Structure," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(1), Spring.
    27. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Time-varying exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk pricing in the Canadian Equity Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 451-463.
    28. Myles E. Mangram, 2013. "A Simplified Perspective Of The Markowitz Portfolio Theory," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(1), pages 59-70.
    29. Shakill Hassan, 2013. "South African Capital Markets An Overview," Working Papers 5962, South African Reserve Bank.
    30. Christian Pierdzioch & Renatas Kizys, 2010. "Sources of time-varying exchange rate exposure," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 371-390, December.
    31. Charles Amo Yartey, 2008. "The Determinants of Stock Market Development in Emerging Economies: Is South Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 2008/032, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Zhou, Xiangyi & Zhang, Weijin & Zhang, Jie, 2012. "Volatility spillovers between the Chinese and world equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 247-270.
    33. Choi, Jongmoo Jay & Hiraki, Takato & Takezawa, Nobuya, 1998. "Is Foreign Exchange Risk Priced in the Japanese Stock Market?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 361-382, September.
    34. Jongmoo Jay Choi & Anita Mehra Prasad, 1995. "Exchange Risk Sensitivity and Its Determinants: A Firm and Industry Analysis of U.S. Multinationals," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 24(3), Fall.
    35. Francesca Carrieri & Basma Majerbi, 2006. "The pricing of exchange risk in emerging stock markets," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 37(3), pages 372-391, May.
    36. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2011. "Foreign exchange risk pricing and equity market segmentation in Africa," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2295-2310, September.
    37. Nesrine Mechri & Salah Ben Hamad & Christian De Peretti, 2019. "The Impact of the Exchange Rate Volatilities on Stock Market Returns Dynamic," Working Papers hal-01766742, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Time-varying exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk pricing in the Canadian Equity Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 451-463.
    2. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2011. "Foreign exchange risk pricing and equity market segmentation in Africa," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2295-2310, September.
    3. Horst Entorf & Gösta Jamin, 2007. "German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Levels, International Trade and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment Costs," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 344-374, August.
    4. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Bodnar, Gordon M., 2012. "Crossing the lines: The conditional relation between exchange rate exposure and stock returns in emerging and developed markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 766-792.
    5. Chen, Qi-an & Li, Huashi, 2023. "How does exchange rate elasticity of aggregate consumption adjust currency risk price in the stock market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 590-610.
    6. Huang, Lin & Wu, Jia & Zhang, Rui, 2014. "Exchange risk and asset returns: A theoretical and empirical study of an open economy asset pricing model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 96-116.
    7. Fuchs, Fabian U., 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of foreign exchange rate exposure," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 77-102.
    8. Chung, Hyunchul & Majerbi, Basma & Rizeanu, Sorin, 2015. "Exchange risk premia and firm characteristics," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 96-125.
    9. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2006. "Foreign exchange risk exposure: Survey and suggestions," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 385-410, October.
    10. Azher, Sara & Iqbal, Javed, 2016. "Pricing of foreign exchange risk and market segmentation: Evidence from Pakistan's equity market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 37-48.
    11. Fuchs, Fabian U., 2020. "Macroeconomic determinants of foreign exchange rate exposure," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe B-42-20, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    12. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "Conditional pricing of currency risk in Africa's equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 133-155.
    13. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Pricing of the currency risk in the Canadian equity market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 173-194.
    14. Entrop, Oliver & Fuchs, Fabian U., 2020. "Foreign exchange rate exposure of companies under dynamic regret," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe B-40-20, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    15. Gamini Premaratne & Prabhath Jayasinghe, 2005. "Exchange rate exposure of stock returns at firm level," International Finance 0503004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ekta Sikarwar & Roopak Gupta, 2019. "Economic exposure to exchange rate risk and financial hedging," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(4), pages 965-984, August.
    17. Patro, Dilip K. & Wald, John K. & Wu, Yangru, 2002. "Explaining exchange rate risk in world stock markets: A panel approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 1951-1972, October.
    18. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "The conditional pricing of currency and inflation risks in Africa's equity markets," MPRA Paper 56100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Alaganar, V.T. & Bhar, Ramaprasad, 2007. "Empirical properties of currency risk in country index portfolios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 159-174, March.
    20. Chen, Jianguo & Naylor, Michael & Lu, Xingshen, 2004. "Some insights into the foreign exchange pricing puzzle: Evidence from a small open economy," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 41-64, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange-rate exposure; Pricing; Premia; Arbitrage pricing theory; Rolling window; Emerging and developed economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ajemsp:ajems-11-2023-0436. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.