IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/worbus/v40y2005i2p111-123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A forecast of globalization, international business and trade: report from a Delphi study

Author

Listed:
  • Czinkota, Michael R.
  • Ronkainen, Ilkka A.

Abstract

Globalization causes dramatic changes in business environments both in terms of their degree and swiftness. Forecasting such changes is crucial for the preparation of responses by the affected parties. This article reports on a Delphi study conducted with a set of experts drawn from the policy, business and academic communities ranging from the megamarkets of the world to the emerging and developing ones. Over three rounds of interchange, these experts analyzed and debated the likelihood of changes in the international business environment over the next decade and the impact of these changes on policy and on corporate practices. The findings identify major sectoral transformations, shifts in the trade framework and its institution, and strategies for corporate adjustment. In some cases, these phenomena occur in different geographic areas with diverse effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Czinkota, Michael R. & Ronkainen, Ilkka A., 2005. "A forecast of globalization, international business and trade: report from a Delphi study," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 111-123, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:worbus:v:40:y:2005:i:2:p:111-123
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S109095160500012X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steve Werner & Lance Eliot Brouthers, 2002. "How International is Management?," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 33(3), pages 583-591, September.
    2. Chuck C Y Kwok & Jeffrey S Arpan, 2002. "Internationalizing the Business School: A Global Survey in 2000," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 33(3), pages 571-581, September.
    3. Michael R Czinkota & Ilkka A Ronkainen, 1997. "International Business and Trade in the Next Decade: Report from a Delphi Study," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 28(4), pages 827-844, December.
    4. Michael R Czinkota, 1986. "International Trade And Business In The Late 1980s: An Integrated U.S. Perspective," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 17(1), pages 127-134, March.
    5. Peter J Buckley, 2002. "Is the International Business Research Agenda Running Out of Steam?," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 33(2), pages 365-373, June.
    6. Todd Sandler & Walter Enders & Harvey E. Lapan, 1991. "Economic Analysis Can Help Fight International Terrorism," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 10-17, January.
    7. John H Dunning, 1995. "Reappraising the Eclectic Paradigm in an Age of Alliance Capitalism," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 26(3), pages 461-491, September.
    8. Stanley C. Hollander & Kathleen M. Rassuli (ed.), 1993. "Marketing," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 512.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Venkatesh, V.G. & Rathi, Snehal & Patwa, Sriyans, 2015. "Analysis on supply chain risks in Indian apparel retail chains and proposal of risk prioritization model using Interpretive structural modeling," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 153-167.
    2. Samir Mili & Maria Bouhaddane, 2021. "Forecasting Global Developments and Challenges in Olive Oil Supply and Demand: A Delphi Survey from Spain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Lahiri, Somnath & Pérez-Nordtvedt, Liliana & Renn, Robert W., 2008. "Will the new competitive landscape cause your firm's decline? It depends on your mindset," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 311-320.
    4. C Gopinath & Antonin Ricard, 2013. "Executives' attitudes towards globalisation," Post-Print hal-03577596, HAL.
    5. Marcin Kozak & Olesia Iefremova, 2014. "Implementation Of The Delphi Technique In Finance," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(4), pages 36-45, May.
    6. Michael R. Czinkota & Ilkka A. Ronkainen, 2009. "Trends and Indications in International Business," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 249-265, April.
    7. Nielsen, Christine & Thangadurai, Mohan, 2007. "Janus and the Delphi Oracle: Entering the new world of international business research," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 147-163, June.
    8. Hoorani, Bareerah Hafeez & Plakoyiannaki, Emmanuella & Gibbert, Michael, 2023. "Understanding time in qualitative international business research: Towards four styles of temporal theorizing," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1).
    9. Czinkota, Michael R., 2006. "Academic freedom for all in higher education: The role of the general agreement on trade in services," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 149-160, June.
    10. Klarin, Anton & Inkizhinov, Boris & Nazarov, Dashi & Gorenskaia, Elena, 2021. "International business education: What we know and what we have yet to develop," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(5).
    11. Serrano Caballero, Enriqueta & Ojo, Marianne, 2019. "Trade Negotiations and Global Relations: Emerging Players and Actors," MPRA Paper 92105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Amir Hossein Azadnia & Simon Stephens & Pezhman Ghadimi & George Onofrei, 2022. "A comprehensive performance measurement framework for business incubation centres: Empirical evidence in an Irish context," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 2437-2455, July.
    13. Kedia, Ben L. & Lahiri, Somnath, 2007. "International outsourcing of services: A partnership model," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 22-37, March.
    14. Winkler, Jens & Moser, Roger, 2016. "Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 63-76.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferreira, Manuel Portugal & Li, Dan & Guisinger, Stephen & Serra, Fernando A. Ribeiro, 2009. "Será o ambiente internacional de negócios o contexto efetivo para a pesquisa em negócios internacionais?," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 49(3), July.
    2. Michael R. Czinkota & Ilkka A. Ronkainen, 2009. "Trends and Indications in International Business," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 249-265, April.
    3. Nielsen, Christine & Thangadurai, Mohan, 2007. "Janus and the Delphi Oracle: Entering the new world of international business research," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 147-163, June.
    4. Manuel Portugal Ferreira & Dan Li & Stephen Guisinger, 2007. "Is the 'International Business Environment' the Actual Context for IB Research?," Working Papers 2, globADVANTAGE, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria.
    5. Lin Cui & Fuming Jiang, 2010. "Behind ownership decision of Chinese outward FDI: Resources and institutions," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 751-774, December.
    6. Federico BONAGLIA & Andrea GOLDSTEIN & John MATHEWS, 2006. "Accelerated Internationalisation by Emerging Multinationals: the Case of White Goods Sector," Working Papers 270, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    7. Bonaglia, Federico & Goldstein, Andrea & Mathews, John A., 2007. "Accelerated internationalization by emerging markets' multinationals: The case of the white goods sector," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 369-383, December.
    8. Katharina Maria Hofer & Angela Elisabeth Smejkal & F. Zeynep Bilgin & Gerhard A. Wuehrer, 2010. "Conference proceedings as a matter of bibliometric studies: the Academy of International Business 2006–2008," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 84(3), pages 845-862, September.
    9. Seno-Alday, Sandra, 2010. "International business thought: A 50-year footprint," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 16-31, March.
    10. John Mathews, 2006. "Dragon multinationals: New players in 21 st century globalization," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 5-27, March.
    11. Marcin Kozak & Olesia Iefremova, 2014. "Implementation Of The Delphi Technique In Finance," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(4), pages 36-45, May.
    12. Winkler, Jens & Moser, Roger, 2016. "Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 63-76.
    13. Acedo, Francisco José & Casillas, José Carlos, 2005. "Current paradigms in the international management field: An author co-citation analysis," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 619-639, October.
    14. Sang-Heui Lee & Jay Wyk, 2015. "National institutions and logistic performance: a path analysis," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 9(4), pages 733-747, December.
    15. Buckley, Peter J. & Cross, Adam & De Mattos, Claudio, 2015. "The principle of congruity in the analysis of international business cooperation," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1048-1060.
    16. Conti, Claudio Ramos & Parente, Ronaldo & de Vasconcelos, Flávio C., 2016. "When distance does not matter: Implications for Latin American multinationals," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(6), pages 1980-1992.
    17. repec:rdg:wpaper:em-dp2007-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Yi-Min Chen, 2008. "How Much Does Country Matter?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 31(4), pages 404-435, October.
    19. Rajneesh Narula & Grazia D. Santangelo, 2007. "Location and R&D Alliances in the European ICT Industry," DRUID Working Papers 07-05, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
    20. E. Samanidou & E. Zschischang & D. Stauffer & T. Lux, 2001. "Microscopic Models of Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0110354, arXiv.org.
    21. Gloria Ge & Hugh Wang, 2013. "The impact of network relationships on internationalization process: An empirical study of Chinese private enterprises," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 1169-1189, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:worbus:v:40:y:2005:i:2:p:111-123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/620401/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.