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Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy

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  • Noland, Marcus
  • Robinson, Sherman
  • Wang, Tao

Abstract

In this paper we use cross-entropy estimation techniques to construct the underlying data base for a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the North Korean economy, starting from incomplete data ridden with gross measurement errors. The cross-entropy estimation approach is powerful and flexible, allowing us to make full use of what information we have in whatever form. CGE modeling forces internal consistency. The end product is a model that incorporates fragmentary information in a rigorous way and allows us to examine the implications of a number of alternative scenarios including rehabilitation of flood-affected lands, liberalization of the international trade regime, and military demobilization.
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  • Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2000. "Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1767-1787, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:28:y:2000:i:10:p:1767-1787
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    1. Noland, Marcus, 1990. "Prospective changes in Japan's trade pattern," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 211-238, September.
    2. Robinson, Sherman & Cattaneo, Andrea & El-Said, Moataz, 1998. "Estimating a social accounting matrix using cross entropy methods:," TMD discussion papers 33, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-549, August.
    4. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Ligang Liu, 1999. "The economics of korean unification," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 255-299.
    5. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley & DEC, 1994. "The Soviet economic decline : historical and republican data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1284, The World Bank.
    6. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2001. "Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(4), pages 741-767, July.
    7. Marcus Noland, 2000. "Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 94.
    8. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2000. "Modeling Korean Unification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-421, June.
    9. Dyck, I J Alexander, 1997. "Privatization in Eastern Germany: Management Selection and Economic Transition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 565-597, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcus Noland, 2004. "Famine and Reform in North Korea," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(2), pages 1-40.
    2. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2001. "Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(4), pages 741-767, July.
    3. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Kim, Suk Jin & Lee, Keun, 2007. "Assessing the economic performance of North Korea, 1954-1989: Estimates and growth accounting analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 564-582, September.
    4. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2000. "Modeling Korean Unification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-421, June.
    5. Sumie Sato & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2007. "The End of Import-Led Growth? North Korean Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 07-38, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    6. Sato, Sumie & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2011. "The North Korean economy: Escape from import-led growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 76-83, February.

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