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Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Marcus Noland

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Sherman Robinson

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Tao Wang

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we use cross-entropy estimation techniques to construct the underlying data base for a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the North Korean economy, starting from incomplete data ridden with gross measurement errors. The cross-entropy estimation approach is powerful and flexible, allowing us to make full use of what information we have in whatever form. CGE modeling forces internal consistency. The end product is a model that incorporates fragmentary information in a rigorous way and allows us to examine the implications of a number of alternative scenarios including rehabilitation of flood-affected lands, liberalization of the international trade regime, and military demobilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Tao Wang, 1999. "Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy," Working Paper Series WP99-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp99-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Jong‐Wha Lee & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2018. "North Korea’s Economic Integration and Growth Potential," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 301-325, September.
    2. Kightley, Marta, . "Stosunki gospodarcze pomiędzy Republiką Korei a Koreańską Republiką Ludowo-Demokratyczną," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2012(3).
    3. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Kim, Suk Jin & Lee, Keun, 2007. "Assessing the economic performance of North Korea, 1954-1989: Estimates and growth accounting analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 564-582, September.
    4. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2000. "Modeling Korean Unification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-421, June.
    5. Marta Kightley, 2012. "Stosunki gospodarcze pomiędzy Republiką Korei a Koreańską Republiką Ludowo-Demokratyczną," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 43-60.
    6. Sumie Sato & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2007. "The End of Import-Led Growth? North Korean Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 07-38, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    7. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2001. "Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(4), pages 741-767, July.
    8. repec:osf:socarx:7r8sm_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Dahlan, Hadi Akbar, 2021. "Trends and Food Technology Gap in Global Food Policy," SocArXiv 7r8sm, Center for Open Science.
    10. Sato, Sumie & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2011. "The North Korean economy: Escape from import-led growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 76-83, February.
    11. Marcus Noland, 2004. "Famine and Reform in North Korea," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(2), pages 1-40.

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