Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures
In this paper we start from incomplete data ridden with gross measurement errors to construct the underlying data base for a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the North Korean economy using cross-entropy estimation techniques. This model incorporates fragmentary information in a rigorous way and allows us to examine the implications of a number of alternative scenarios. First, we model a production-oriented recovery program as the restoration of flood-affected lands. We then model an external assistance program as the acquisition of all food aid necessary to attain the United Nations organizations' estimates of minimum human needs. The trade-oriented recovery program is modeled as a relaxation of agricultural import quotas and the importation of food on commercial terms. Finally, we model a systemic reform program as the elimination of quantitative restrictions on all external trade.
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- Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2000.
"Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy,"
Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1767-1787, October.
- Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Tao Wang, 1999. "Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy," Working Paper Series WP99-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-49, August.
- Coate, Stephen, 1989.
"Cash versus direct food relief,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 199-224, April.
- Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Li-Gang Liu, 1997.
"The Economics of Korean Unification,"
Working Paper Series
WP97-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Robinson, Sherman & Cattaneo, Andrea & El-Said, Moataz, 1998. "Estimating a social accounting matrix using cross entropy methods:," TMD discussion papers 33, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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