IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v70y2014icp149-161.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Agent-based modelling for assessing hybrid and electric cars deployment policies in Luxembourg and Lorraine

Author

Listed:
  • Querini, Florent
  • Benetto, Enrico

Abstract

Electric mobility is often presented as a way to tackle the environmental issues associated with individual mobility, provided that electric vehicles are adopted by drivers on a mass scale. In this paper, we propose an agent-based model (ABM) aiming at modelling the deployment of these vehicles. ABM is particularly indicated when modelling complex systems whose final results are the combination of the interactions between individuals and their environment and when the agents have partial information to take their decisions. We selected Luxembourg and its French neighbouring region, Lorraine, as the case study for our model, to test Luxembourg’s ambitious objective of deploying 40,000 electric vehicles by the year 2020. Model results show that the number of battery powered electric vehicles in Luxembourg (including vehicles from Lorraine’s commuters crossing the border every day) could be between 2000 and 21,000. A high number of commercial vehicles in Luxembourg, as well as an unlikely deployment in the neighbouring Belgium and Germany would therefore be required to meet the deployment objective. However, the deployment of plug-in hybrid vehicles could reach 60,000 cars by the end of 2020. To achieve this number, the deployment of charging points seems to be the more effective policy, along with actions aiming at increasing public awareness and acceptance of electric vehicles. The interest in using the ABM also lies in the identification of the main individuals’ characteristics affecting the deployment of electric vehicles (household size, commuting distances, etc.), which further support the setting of public policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Querini, Florent & Benetto, Enrico, 2014. "Agent-based modelling for assessing hybrid and electric cars deployment policies in Luxembourg and Lorraine," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 149-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:70:y:2014:i:c:p:149-161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2014.10.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856414002596
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2014.10.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Naveen Eluru & Chandra Bhat & Ram Pendyala & Karthik Konduri, 2010. "A joint flexible econometric model system of household residential location and vehicle fleet composition/usage choices," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 603-626, July.
    2. Arentze, Theo A. & Timmermans, Harry J.P., 2009. "A need-based model of multi-day, multi-person activity generation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 251-265, February.
    3. Floriana Gargiulo & Sônia Ternes & Sylvie Huet & Guillaume Deffuant, 2010. "An Iterative Approach for Generating Statistically Realistic Populations of Households," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, January.
    4. Astrid De Witte & Joachim Hollevoet & Frédéric Dobruszkes & Michel Hubert & Cathy Macharis, 2013. "Linking modal choice to motility: a comprehensive review," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/138176, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Chorus, Caspar G. & Arentze, Theo A. & Timmermans, Harry J.P., 2008. "A Random Regret-Minimization model of travel choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-18, January.
    6. De Witte, Astrid & Hollevoet, Joachim & Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Hubert, Michel & Macharis, Cathy, 2013. "Linking modal choice to motility: A comprehensive review," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 329-341.
    7. Mueller, Michel G. & de Haan, Peter, 2009. "How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars--Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1072-1082, March.
    8. Hun-Chang Lee, 2008. "The International Environment of Modern Korea," Discussion Paper Series 0806, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    9. Shafiei, Ehsan & Thorkelsson, Hedinn & Ásgeirsson, Eyjólfur Ingi & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Raberto, Marco & Stefansson, Hlynur, 2012. "An agent-based modeling approach to predict the evolution of market share of electric vehicles: A case study from Iceland," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 1638-1653.
    10. Timmermans, Harry J.P. & Zhang, Junyi, 2009. "Modeling household activity travel behavior: Examples of state of the art modeling approaches and research agenda," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 187-190, February.
    11. Arun Kuppam & Ram Pendyala, 2001. "A structural equations analysis of commuters' activity and travel patterns," Transportation, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 33-54, February.
    12. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
    13. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sen, Sudeshna & Eluru, Naveen, 2009. "The impact of demographics, built environment attributes, vehicle characteristics, and gasoline prices on household vehicle holdings and use," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-18, January.
    14. Kloess, Maximilian & Müller, Andreas, 2011. "Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria--A model based analysis 2010-2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5045-5062, September.
    15. Marta C. González & César A. Hidalgo & Albert-László Barabási, 2009. "Understanding individual human mobility patterns," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7235), pages 238-238, March.
    16. Eppstein, Margaret J. & Grover, David K. & Marshall, Jeffrey S. & Rizzo, Donna M., 2011. "An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3789-3802, June.
    17. de Haan, Peter & Mueller, Michel G. & Scholz, Roland W., 2009. "How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars--Part II: Forecasting effects of feebates based on energy-efficiency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1083-1094, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Walzberg, Julien & Dandres, Thomas & Merveille, Nicolas & Cheriet, Mohamed & Samson, Réjean, 2019. "Assessing behavioural change with agent-based life cycle assessment: Application to smart homes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 365-376.
    2. Mehdizadeh, Milad & Nordfjaern, Trond & Klöckner, Christian A., 2022. "A systematic review of the agent-based modelling/simulation paradigm in mobility transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    3. Joseph Palazzo & Roland Geyer & Sangwon Suh, 2020. "A review of methods for characterizing the environmental consequences of actions in life cycle assessment," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(4), pages 815-829, August.
    4. Tobias Buchmann & Patrick Wolf & Stefan Fidaschek, 2021. "Stimulating E-Mobility Diffusion in Germany (EMOSIM): An Agent-Based Simulation Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-25, January.
    5. Wang, Hua & Zhao, De & Meng, Qiang & Ong, Ghim Ping & Lee, Der-Horng, 2019. "A four-step method for electric-vehicle charging facility deployment in a dense city: An empirical study in Singapore," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 224-237.
    6. Albert Hiesl & Jasmine Ramsebner & Reinhard Haas, 2021. "Modelling Stochastic Electricity Demand of Electric Vehicles Based on Traffic Surveys—The Case of Austria," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, March.
    7. Shen, Max & Li, Meng & He, Fang & Jia, Yinghao, 2016. "Strategic Charging Infrastructure Deployment for Electric Vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt2rr92202, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    8. Shen, Max & Li, Meng & He , Fang & Jia, Yinghao, 2016. "Strategic Charging Infrastructure Deployment for Electric Vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt6rp6n4sf, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    9. Rugani, Benedetto & Marvuglia, Antonino & Pulselli, Federico Maria, 2018. "Predicting Sustainable Economic Welfare – Analysis and perspectives for Luxembourg based on energy policy scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 288-303.
    10. Li, Meng & Jia, Yinghao & Shen, Zuojun & He, Fang, 2017. "Improving the electrification rate of the vehicle miles traveled in Beijing: A data-driven approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 106-120.
    11. Utomo, D.S. & Gripton, A. & Greening, P., 2021. "Analysing charging strategies for electric LGV in grocery delivery operation using agent-based modelling: An initial case study in the United Kingdom," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    12. Sen, Burak & Noori, Mehdi & Tatari, Omer, 2017. "Will Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standard help? Modeling CAFE's impact on market share of electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 279-287.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Kühn, André & Wietschel, Martin, 2015. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 95-112.
    2. Mehdizadeh, Milad & Nordfjaern, Trond & Klöckner, Christian A., 2022. "A systematic review of the agent-based modelling/simulation paradigm in mobility transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    3. Nie, Yu (Marco) & Ghamami, Mehrnaz & Zockaie, Ali & Xiao, Feng, 2016. "Optimization of incentive polices for plug-in electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 103-123.
    4. François Sprumont & Ariane Scheffer & Geoffrey Caruso & Eric Cornelis & Francesco Viti, 2022. "Quantifying the Relation between Activity Pattern Complexity and Car Use Using a Partial Least Square Structural Equation Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Karsten Kieckhäfer & Thomas Volling & Thomas Stefan Spengler, 2014. "A Hybrid Simulation Approach for Estimating the Market Share Evolution of Electric Vehicles," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(4), pages 651-670, November.
    6. Juana Castro & Stefan Drews & Filippos Exadaktylos & Joël Foramitti & Franziska Klein & Théo Konc & Ivan Savin & Jeroen van den Bergh, 2020. "A review of agent‐based modeling of climate‐energy policy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), July.
    7. Goodwin, Paul & Meeran, Sheik & Dyussekeneva, Karima, 2014. "The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1082-1097.
    8. Egnér, Filippa & Trosvik, Lina, 2018. "Electric vehicle adoption in Sweden and the impact of local policy instruments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 584-596.
    9. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Funke, Simon & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "What is the market potential of electric vehicles as commercial passenger cars? A case study from Germany," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S14/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    10. Emiliano Brancaccio & Mauro Gallegati & Raffaele Giammetti, 2022. "Neoclassical influences in agent‐based literature: A systematic review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 350-385, April.
    11. Bouscasse, Hélène & de Lapparent, Matthieu, 2019. "Perceived comfort and values of travel time savings in the Rhône-Alpes Region," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 370-387.
    12. Martin, Elliot & Shaheen, Susan & Lipman, Timothy & Camel, Madonna, 2014. "Evaluating the public perception of a feebate policy in California through the estimation and cross-validation of an ordinal regression model," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 144-153.
    13. Mathieu Lambotte & Sandrine Mathy & Anna Risch & Carole Treibich, 2022. "Spreading active transportation: peer effects and key players in the workplace," Working Papers 2022-02, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    14. Wolbertus, Rick & van den Hoed, Robert & Kroesen, Maarten & Chorus, Caspar, 2021. "Charging infrastructure roll-out strategies for large scale introduction of electric vehicles in urban areas: An agent-based simulation study," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 262-285.
    15. Coad, Alex & de Haan, Peter & Woersdorfer, Julia Sophie, 2009. "Consumer support for environmental policies: An application to purchases of green cars," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2078-2086, May.
    16. Nayum, Alim & Klöckner, Christian A. & Prugsamatz, Sunita, 2013. "Influences of car type class and carbon dioxide emission levels on purchases of new cars: A retrospective analysis of car purchases in Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 96-108.
    17. Kaplan, Sigal & Shiftan, Yoram & Bekhor, Shlomo, 2012. "Development and estimation of a semi-compensatory model with a flexible error structure," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 291-304.
    18. Shasha Liu & Toshiyuki Yamamoto & Enjian Yao, 2023. "Joint modeling of mode choice and travel distance with intra-household interactions," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(5), pages 1527-1552, October.
    19. Al-Alawi, Baha M. & Bradley, Thomas H., 2013. "Review of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle market modeling Studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 190-203.
    20. Mathieu Lambotte & Sandrine Mathy & Anna Risch & Carole Treibich, 2022. "Spreading active transportation: peer effects and key players in the workplace," Post-Print hal-03702684, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:70:y:2014:i:c:p:149-161. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.