Latent temporal preferences: An application to airline travel
An essential element of demand modeling in the airline industry is the representation of time of day demand--the demand for a given itinerary as a function of its departure or arrival times. It is an important datum that drives successful scheduling and fleet decisions. There are two key components to this problem: the distribution of the time of day demand and how preferred travel time influences itinerary choice. This paper focuses on estimating the time of day distribution. Our objective is to estimate it in a manner that is not confounded with air travel supply; is a function of the characteristics of the traveler, the trip, and the market; and accounts for potential measurement errors in self-reported travel time preferences. We employ a stated preference dataset collected by intercepting people who were booking continental US trips via an internet booking service. Respondents reported preferred travel times as well as choices from a hypothetical set of itineraries. We parameterize the time of day distribution as a mixture of normal distributions (due to the strong peaking nature of travel time preferences) and allow the mixing function to vary by individual characteristics and trip attributes. We estimate the time of day distribution and the itinerary choice model jointly in a manner that accounts for measurement error in the self-reported travel time preferences. We find that the mixture of normal distributions fits the time of day distribution well and is behaviorally intuitive. The strongest covariates of travel time preferences are party size and time zone change. The methodology employed to treat self-reported travel time preferences as potentially having error contributes to the broader transportation time of day demand literature, which either assumes that the desired travel times are known with certainty or that they are unknown. We find that the error in self-reported travel time preferences is statistically significant and impacts the inferred time of day demand distribution.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 45 (2011)
Issue (Month): 9 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mahmassani, Hani S. & Chang, Gang-Len, 1986. "Experiments with departure time choice dynamics of urban commuters," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 297-320, August.
- Bhat, Chandra R. & Steed, Jennifer L., 2002. "A continuous-time model of departure time choice for urban shopping trips," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 207-224, March.
- Lemp, Jason D. & Kockelman, Kara M. & Damien, Paul, 2010. "The continuous cross-nested logit model: Formulation and application for departure time choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 646-661, June.
- Small, Kenneth A, 1987. "A Discrete Choice Model for Ordered Alternatives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 409-24, March.
- Bowman, J. L. & Ben-Akiva, M. E., 2001. "Activity-based disaggregate travel demand model system with activity schedules," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-28, January.
- Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M., 2010. "Willingness to pay for travel time reliability in passenger transport: A review and some new empirical evidence," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 384-403, May.
- Sathaye, Nakul & Harley, Robert & Madanat, Samer, 2009. "Unintended environmental impacts of nighttime freight logistics activities," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt5bd8g77m, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
- Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-79, June.
- Walker, Joan & Ben-Akiva, Moshe, 2002. "Generalized random utility model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 303-343, July.
- Hansen, Mark, 2002. "Micro-level analysis of airport delay externalities using deterministic queuing models: a case study," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 73-87.
- Yáñez, M.F. & Raveau, S. & Ortúzar, J. de D., 2010. "Inclusion of latent variables in Mixed Logit models: Modelling and forecasting," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 744-753, November.
- Stephane Hess & John Polak & Andrew Daly & Geoffrey Hyman, 2007. "Flexible substitution patterns in models of mode and time of day choice: new evidence from the UK and the Netherlands," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 213-238, March.
- Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
- Tseng, Yin-Yen & Verhoef, Erik T., 2008.
"Value of time by time of day: A stated-preference study,"
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological,
Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 607-618, August.
- Yin-yen Tseng & Erik Verhoef, 2007. "Value of Time by Time of Day: A Stated-Preference Study," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-061/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 08 Nov 2007.
- Proussaloglou, Kimon & Koppelman, Frank S., 1999. "The choice of air carrier, flight, and fare class," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 193-201.
- Hausman, Jerry A. & Ruud, Paul A., 1987. "Specifying and testing econometric models for rank-ordered data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 83-104.
- Börjesson, Maria, 2008. "Joint RP-SP data in a mixed logit analysis of trip timing decisions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1025-1038, November.
- Koppelman, Frank S. & Coldren, Gregory M. & Parker, Roger A., 2008. "Schedule delay impacts on air-travel itinerary demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 263-273, March.
- de Jong, Gerard & Daly, Andrew & Pieters, Marits & Vellay, Carine & Bradley, Mark & Hofman, Frank, 2003. "A model for time of day and mode choice using error components logit," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 245-268, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:9:p:880-895. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.