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Minimisation of uncertainty in decision-making processes using optimised probabilistic Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: A case study for a rural sector

Author

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  • Sacchelli, S.
  • Fabbrizzi, S.

Abstract

Several studies have focused on methods of increasing system and uncertainty knowledge for socio-economic and environmental policies; however, the nonlinearity and dynamism of real world increase the gap between uncertainty depiction and its evaluation in policy strategies. This work attempts to implement a methodology that is able to minimise uncertainty in decision support tools related to rural planning and management. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, the Dempster–Shafer theory and nonlinear optimisation were applied to achieve the above-mentioned goal. The method was tested to describe suitable policies and intervention strategies to address the effects of the recent economic crisis in the agricultural sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Sacchelli, S. & Fabbrizzi, S., 2015. "Minimisation of uncertainty in decision-making processes using optimised probabilistic Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: A case study for a rural sector," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 31-40.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:52:y:2015:i:c:p:31-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2015.10.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. van Winsen, Frankwin & de Mey, Yann & Lauwers, Ludwig & Van Passel, Steven & Vancauteren, Mark & Wauters, Erwin, 2013. "Cognitive mapping: A method to elucidate and present farmers’ risk perception," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 42-52.
    2. Rees, M.T. & Wu, J. & Jenkins, N. & Abeysekera, M., 2014. "Carbon constrained design of energy infrastructure for new build schemes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1220-1234.
    3. Armacost, Robert L. & Pet-Edwards, Julia, 1999. "Integrative risk and uncertainty analysis for complex public sector operational systems," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 105-130, June.
    4. Tydeman, John & Mitchell, Robert, 1978. "Policy evaluation under uncertainty: An approach using subjective information," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 277-284.
    5. repec:eee:ecomod:v:219:y:2008:i:3:p:383-399 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pascucci, Stefano & de-Magistris, Tiziana, 2011. "The effects of changing regional Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation System on Italian farmers’ strategies," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(9), pages 746-754.
    7. Lopolito, Antonio & Nardone, Gianluca & Prosperi, Maurizio & Sisto, Roberta & Stasi, Antonio, 2011. "Modeling the bio-refinery industry in rural areas: A participatory approach for policy options comparison," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 18-27.
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