An empirical analysis of effects of gasoline price change on transportation behavior in Japan, with consideration of regional differences

This empirically analyzes the effect of gasoline price change on various aspects of surface transport behavior comprehensively, with consideration of regional differences as to whether or not the region includes a major metropolitan agglomeration area (hereafter, “megalopolis”), by means of carefully arranging yearly time-series data from fiscal 1987 to fiscal 2008 in Japan. The aim is to look at common as well as different effects among regions and to draw policy implications relating to fuel price, as well as to fuel tax, towards developing a low-carbon transport system, which are applicable to other countries including emerging countries where a demographic disparity between megalopolis areas and rural areas might be increasing. The methodology includes the multiple regression models complemented by the 1st order auto-regressive models of error terms, where the elasticities of gasoline price and those of income regarding usage of personal automobiles, of public transport and of passenger railways with or without periodic tickets, and fuel consumption on cars, as well as ownership of various types of cars, are estimated for individual gross-regions. In both gross-regions, higher gasoline prices are commonly shown to be related to lower ownership of larger private passenger cars, higher ownership of light cars, lower ownership of the total private passenger cars, lower passenger-km per capita in cars, lower fuel consumption on cars and higher transit ridership. The result suggests general automobile-fuel-price policy implications, the extent of which is differentiated by spatial characteristics, and estimates the adverse effect of the possible abolition of the provisional gasoline tax rate on the emissions in both gross-regions. The application of result is also tried in exploring effect of other policy measures such as expressway tolls.