IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v48y2019icp201-209.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dividend policy and political uncertainty: Evidence from the US presidential elections

Author

Listed:
  • Farooq, Omar
  • Ahmed, Neveen

Abstract

This paper shows that dividend policies adopted by the US firms are sensitive to presidential elections. Using a large dataset covering six presidential elections (1996–2016), we show that firms pay higher percentage of their earnings as dividends during the election years relative to non-election years. We also show that this sensitivity is confined only to the presidential elections. The gubernatorial elections have no impact on dividend policies adopted by firms. Furthermore, our results suggest that higher are the economic uncertainties (uncertainties related to monetary policies, fiscal policies, and national security policies) in the years of election, higher are the dividend payout ratios. Lastly, we show that firms that pay high dividends during the years of presidential elections have higher value than otherwise similar firms that pay low dividends.

Suggested Citation

  • Farooq, Omar & Ahmed, Neveen, 2019. "Dividend policy and political uncertainty: Evidence from the US presidential elections," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 201-209.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:48:y:2019:i:c:p:201-209
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.01.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531918304744
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.01.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jinliang Li & Jeffery A. Born, 2006. "Presidential Election Uncertainty And Common Stock Returns In The United States," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 609-622, December.
    2. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79, March.
    3. Gonzalez, Maximiliano & Molina, Carlos A. & Pablo, Eduardo & Rosso, John W., 2017. "The effect of ownership concentration and composition on dividends: Evidence from Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Goodell, John W. & Vähämaa, Sami, 2013. "US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1108-1117.
    5. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    7. Mueller, Dennis C, 1972. "A Life Cycle Theory of the Firm," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 199-219, July.
    8. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2005. "Dividend Taxes and Corporate Behavior: Evidence from the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 791-833.
    9. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    10. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    11. Jianping Mei & Limin Guo, 2004. "Political Uncertainty, Financial Crisis and Market Volatility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(4), pages 639-657, December.
    12. David Leblang & Bumba Mukherjee, 2005. "Government Partisanship, Elections, and the Stock Market: Examining American and British Stock Returns, 1930–2000," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(4), pages 780-802, October.
    13. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    14. Jagannathan, Murali & Stephens, Clifford P. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2000. "Financial flexibility and the choice between dividends and stock repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 355-384, September.
    15. Michael S. Rozeff, 1982. "Growth, Beta And Agency Costs As Determinants Of Dividend Payout Ratios," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 5(3), pages 249-259, September.
    16. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    17. Gugler, Klaus & Yurtoglu, B. Burcin, 2003. "Corporate governance and dividend pay-out policy in Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 731-758, August.
    18. Rihanat Idowu Abdulkadir & Nur Adiana Hiau Abdullah & Woei-Chyuan Wong, 2016. "Dividend Payment Behaviour and its Determinants: The Nigerian Evidence," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 53-63, March.
    19. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez‐de‐Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 2000. "Agency Problems and Dividend Policies around the World," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 1-33, February.
    20. Oskar Kowalewski & Ivan Stetsyuk & Oleksandr Talavera, 2007. "Corporate Governance and Dividend Policy in Poland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 702, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
    22. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    23. Kai Li & Xinlei Zhao, 2008. "Asymmetric Information and Dividend Policy," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 673-694, December.
    24. Grossman, S J & Hart, O D, 1980. "Disclosure Laws and Takeover Bids," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 323-334, May.
    25. Buchanan, Bonnie G. & Cao, Cathy Xuying & Liljeblom, Eva & Weihrich, Susan, 2017. "Uncertainty and firm dividend policy—A natural experiment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 179-197.
    26. Husam‐Aldin Nizar Al‐Malkawi, 2007. "Determinants of Corporate Dividend Policy in Jordan: An Application of the Tobit Model," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 23(2), pages 44-70, December.
    27. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    28. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R Harvey & Christian T Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2014. "Political risk spreads," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 45(4), pages 471-493, May.
    29. Tao Huang & Fei Wu & Jin Yu & Bohui Zhang, 2015. "Political risk and dividend policy: Evidence from international political crises," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 46(5), pages 574-595, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq & Aziz, Saqib & El-Khatib, Rwan & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and dividend payout," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Mansi, Sattar & Wang, He (Helen), 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, institutional environments, and corporate cash holdings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    4. Gonçalves, Tiago & Barros, Victor & Serra, Gonçalo, 2022. "Political elections uncertainty and earnings management: Does firm size really matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    5. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Shahab, Yasir & Wang, Peng, 2023. "Geopolitical, economic uncertainty and bank risk: Do CEO power and board strength matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Dung Viet Tran, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank dividend policy," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(3), pages 339-361, September.
    7. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Local corruption and dividend policy: Evidence from Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 195-205.
    8. Anh‐Tuan Doan & Anh‐Tuan Le & Quan Tran, 2020. "Economic uncertainty, ownership structure and small and medium enterprises performance," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 102-137, June.
    9. Attig, Najah & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Zheng, Xiaolan, 2021. "Dividends and economic policy uncertainty: International evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    10. Nguyen, Thi Tuyet Mai & Tran, Quoc Trung, 2022. "Democracy and dividend policy around the world," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq & Aziz, Saqib & El-Khatib, Rwan & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and dividend payout," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Kwabi, Frank Obenpong & Boateng, Agyenim & Wonu, Chizindu & Kariuki, Charles & Du, Anna, 2023. "Political uncertainty and cross-border equity portfolio allocation decisions: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Adra, Samer & Gao, Yang & Huang, Jin & Yuan, Jiayi, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate payout policy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Cheng, Maoyong & Guo, Pin & Jin, Justin Yiqiang & Geng, Hongyan, 2021. "Political uncertainty and city bank lending in China: Evidence from city government official changes," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Dung Viet Tran, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank dividend policy," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(3), pages 339-361, September.
    6. Ferguson, Andrew & Hu, Wei & Lam, Peter, 2022. "Political uncertainty and deal structure: Evidence from Australian mining project acquisitions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Erasmo Giambona & John R Graham & Campbell R Harvey, 2017. "The management of political risk," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 48(4), pages 523-533, May.
    8. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
    9. Frank Obenpong Kwabi & Emmanuel Adegbite & Ernest Ezeani & Chizindu Wonu & Henry Mumbi, 2024. "Political uncertainty and stock market liquidity, size, and transaction cost: The role of institutional quality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2030-2048, April.
    10. Mario Daniele Amore & Margherita Corina, 2021. "Political elections and corporate investment: International evidence," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(9), pages 1775-1796, December.
    11. Daniel Tut, 2022. "Policy uncertainty and cash dynamics," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 422-444, June.
    12. Chan, Kam Fong & Gray, Philip & Gray, Stephen & Zhong, Angel, 2020. "Political uncertainty, market anomalies and Presidential honeymoons," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    13. Frank Kwabi & Andrews Owusu & Ernest Ezeani & Agyenim Boateng, 2024. "The impact of political uncertainty on the cost of capital," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1397-1429, May.
    14. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    15. Islam, Md Shahidul & Alam, Md Samsul & Bin Hasan, Shehub & Mollah, Sabur, 2022. "Firm-level political risk and distance-to-default," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    17. Seyed Alireza Athari, 2021. "The effects of institutional settings and risks on bank dividend policy in an emerging market: Evidence from Tobit model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4493-4515, July.
    18. Olayinka Oyekola & Meryem Duygun & Samuel Odewunmi & Temitope Fagbemi, 2023. "Political risk and external finance: Evidence from cross-country firm-level data," Discussion Papers 2312, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    19. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    20. Pirgaip, Burak & Dinçergök, Burcu, 2019. "Share repurchases under uncertainty: U.S. evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 130-138.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:48:y:2019:i:c:p:201-209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.