Modelling the joint dynamics of oil prices and investor fear gauge
This paper investigates the interdependent relationship between WTI returns and the newly published crude oil volatility index (OVX), combining a cross-correlation function approach, a time-varying parameter (TVP) GARCH model, and a multivariate regression analysis, by which the direction, dynamics, magnitude and asymmetry of their relationship are modelled. At the same time, the implied volatility indexes in the stock market and the gold market are considered for comparison. It is found that there is a significant unidirectional causality-in-mean from WTI returns to the OVX changes, while causality-in-variance from the OVX changes to WTI returns is also significant. The contemporaneous relationship between the OVX changes and WTI returns is significantly negative, and their asymmetric relationship implies that OVX has played a greater role as a gauge of investor fear than as risk preference. The time-varying results indicate that the relationship between the changes in OVX and WTI returns is not always negative.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 37 (2016)
Issue (Month): C ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1995. "Predicting stock market volatility: A new measure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 265-302, May.
- Fernandes, Marcelo & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Scharth, Marcel, 2014.
"Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-10.
- Marcelo Fernandes & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & MArcelo Scharth, 2007. "Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index," Textos para discussão 548, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Fernandes, Marcelo & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Scharth, Marcel, 2013. "Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index," Textos para discussão 342, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Ji, Qiang & Guo, Jian-Feng, 2015. "Oil price volatility and oil-related events: An Internet concern study perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 256-264.
- Jebabli, Ikram & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 66-98.
- Ikram Jebabli & Mohamed Arouri & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVPVAR models with stochastic volatility," Working Papers 2014-209, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Haugom, Erik & Langeland, Henrik & Molnár, Peter & Westgaard, Sjur, 2014. "Forecasting volatility of the U.S. oil market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-14.
- Tanha, Hassan & Dempsey, Michael, 2015. "The asymmetric response of volatility to market changes and the volatility smile: Evidence from Australian options," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 164-176.
- Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2011. "The dynamic interaction between volatility and returns in the US stock market using leveraged bootstrap simulations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 329-334, September.
- Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & McClelland, Andrew, 2009. "The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1033-1038, June.
- Ralf Becker & Adam Clements & Andrew McClelland, 2008. "The Jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index," NCER Working Paper Series 24, National Centre for Econometric Research.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/9860 is not listed on IDEAS
- Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "Leverage vs. feedback: Which Effect drives the oil market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 131-141.
- Sofiane Aboura & Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Leverage vs. Feedback: Which Effect Drives the Oil Market?," Working Papers halshs-00720156, HAL.
- Julien Chevallier & Sofiane Aboura, 2017. "Leverage vs. Feedback: Which Effect Drives the Oil Market ?," Working Papers hal-01531283, HAL.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
- Wagner, Niklas & Szimayer, Alexander, 2004. "Local and spillover shocks in implied market volatility: evidence for the U.S. and Germany," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 237-251, September.
- Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2013. "Causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance within the international steam coal market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 594-604.
- Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
- Kanas, Angelos, 2012. "Modelling the risk–return relation for the S&P 100: The role of VIX," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 795-809.
- Liu, Ming-Lei & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2013. "How does oil market uncertainty interact with other markets? An empirical analysis of implied volatility index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 860-868.
- Sarwar, Ghulam, 2012. "Is VIX an investor fear gauge in BRIC equity markets?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 55-65.
- Zhou, Yinggang, 2014. "Modeling the joint dynamics of risk-neutral stock index and bond yield volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 216-228. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:37:y:2016:i:c:p:242-251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.