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Modeling inter-country spatial financial interactions with Graphical Lasso: An application to sovereign co-risk evaluation

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  • Arbia, Giuseppe
  • Bramante, Riccardo
  • Facchinetti, Silvia
  • Zappa, Diego

Abstract

We propose a model to extract significant risk spatial interactions between countries adopting the Graphical Lasso algorithm, used in graph theory to sort out spurious conditional correlations. In this context, the major issue is the definition of the penalization parameter. We propose a search algorithm aimed at the best separation of the variables (expressed in terms of conditional dependence) given an a priori desired partition. The case study focuses on Credit Default Swap (CDS) returns over the period 2009–2017. The proposed algorithm is used to estimate the spatial systemic risk relationship between Peripheral and Core Countries in the Euro Area.

Suggested Citation

  • Arbia, Giuseppe & Bramante, Riccardo & Facchinetti, Silvia & Zappa, Diego, 2018. "Modeling inter-country spatial financial interactions with Graphical Lasso: An application to sovereign co-risk evaluation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 72-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:72-79
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.02.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Loann David Denis Desboulets, 2020. "Sparse Manifolds Graphical Modelling with Missing Values: An Application to the Commodity Futures Market," Working Papers hal-02986982, HAL.
    2. Cristiana Fiorelli & Alfredo Cartone & Matteo Foglia, 2021. "Shadow rates and spillovers across the Eurozone: a spatial dynamic panel model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 223-245, February.
    3. He Jiang, 2022. "A novel robust structural quadratic forecasting model and applications," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1156-1180, September.
    4. Mo, Guoli & Zhang, Weiguo & Tan, Chunzhi & Liu, Xing, 2022. "Predicting the portfolio risk of high-dimensional international stock indices with dynamic spatial dependence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional financial contagion; Spatial conditional dependence; Systemic risk; Network dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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