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Do business cycle peaks predict election calls in Canada?

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  • Voia, Marcel-Cristian
  • Ferris, J. Stephen

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical regularity that in Canada business cycle peaks and federal elections have tended to arise together over the long post-Confederation time period following 1867. We argue that rather than being simultaneous, the two events are related sequentially and that causality can be identified properly if the selection issue associated with observed events is addressed carefully. Our results suggest that business cycle peaks lead federal elections rather than the other way around. Such a finding reinforces the hypothesis of strategic election timing for such countries and is insightful in helping to explain why the presence of a political business cycle is harder to establish for parliamentary governments where the date of the next election is under the control of the incumbent governing party than in democratic systems where governing durations and election dates are fixed.

Suggested Citation

  • Voia, Marcel-Cristian & Ferris, J. Stephen, 2013. "Do business cycle peaks predict election calls in Canada?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 102-118.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:102-118 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.09.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    2. Mihailo Radoman & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2015. "Internal Promotion in Competitive Sports: Evidence from the English Premier League," Carleton Economic Papers 15-09, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    3. Ferris, J. Stephen & Voia, Marcel C., 2015. "The effect of federal government size on private economic performance in Canada: 1870–2011," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 172-185.
    4. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    5. repec:hal:journl:hal-01291401 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Ilaria Petrarca, 2013. "No news is costly news: the link between the diffusion of the press and public spending," Working Papers 16/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Election timing; Political business cycles; Selection models; Causality; Election hazard;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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