Political Parties in Canada: What Determines Their Entry, Exit and the Duration of Their Lives?

In this paper we consider two margins of individual political party life in Canada since Confederation—the extensive margin governing existence (the entry and exit decisions together with party turnover or churning) and the intensive margin determining lifespan or survival length. The results confirm in a more formal way many of the individual hypotheses advanced in the political literature for entry and exit—the importance of voter heterogeneity, minority governments, world wars, number of competitors and, to a lesser degree, economic circumstance. What stands out most strongly in the data is the introduction of public funding for established political parties following 1974 and immigration flows. The intensive margin is analyzed using a number of hazard models before focusing on semi-parametric models. These best capture the form of the empirical hazard and in the discrete form allows for the detection of party type heterogeneity. The results suggest presence of two distinct political party types in and, more generally, mirror those found for the entry/exit decision. The public funding and immigration flows variables again stand out as being particularly significant.