IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v94y2025ics0927538x25002793.html

The impact of country-specific geopolitical and country risk on Firms' Financial flexibility: International evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Chien-Chiang
  • Wang, Chih-Wei
  • Huang, Po-Hsiang

Abstract

This study examines the international evidence of the impact of country-specific geopolitical and country risk on firms' financial flexibility by using multinational data, which includes 41 countries, 35,317 firms, and 493,752 firm-year observations. Our study uses spare debt capacity to classify the financial flexibility of firms and run logistic regression. Our empirical result documented that country-specific geopolitical risk harms a firm's financial flexibility. In mechanism analysis, the stability of the politics of a country is beneficial to a firm's financial flexibility. Moreover, to handle possible endogeneity issues, we adopt several methods to cope with them. This paper is helpful to companies when making corporate decisions and provides implications for governments while making related policies or enacting the law.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Huang, Po-Hsiang, 2025. "The impact of country-specific geopolitical and country risk on Firms' Financial flexibility: International evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:94:y:2025:i:c:s0927538x25002793
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102942
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X25002793
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102942?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
    3. John Graham & Campbell Harvey, 2002. "HOW DO CFOs MAKE CAPITAL BUDGETING AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 15(1), pages 8-23, March.
    4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei, 2021. "Firms' cash reserve, financial constraint, and geopolitical risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Özgür Arslan-Ayaydin & Chris Florackis & Aydin Ozkan, 2014. "Financial flexibility, corporate investment and performance: evidence from financial crises," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 211-250, February.
    6. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Morelli, David & Uzan, Paola Sultana Renée, 2020. "Asymmetric implied market volatility and terrorist attacks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Chak Hung Jack Cheng & Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu, 2018. "How important are global geopolitical risks to emerging countries?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 305-325.
    8. Xinjie Wang & Yangru Wu & Weike Xu, 2024. "Geopolitical Risk and Investment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(8), pages 2023-2059, December.
    9. Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2010. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2024. "Pricing behavior of clean energy stocks? Some trading implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2017. "Geopolitical risks and the oil-stock nexus over 1899–2016," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 165-173.
    12. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2019. "Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 367-379, April.
    13. Jonathan Thomas & Tim Worrall, 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment and the Risk of Expropriation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 81-108.
    14. Soku Byoun, 2008. "How and When Do Firms Adjust Their Capital Structures toward Targets?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 3069-3096, December.
    15. Park, Jin Suk & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2018. "Do terrorist attacks harm financial markets? A meta-analysis of event studies and the determinants of adverse impact," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 227-247.
    16. Rangan Gupta & Giray Gozgor & Huseyin Kaya & Ender Demir, 2019. "Effects of geopolitical risks on trade flows: evidence from the gravity model," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(4), pages 515-530, December.
    17. Luca Pieroni, 2009. "Military Expenditure And Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 327-339.
    18. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "The Pure Theory of Country Risk," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Whited, Toni M., 2011. "Capital structure dynamics and transitory debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 235-261, February.
    20. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2023. "Patent-related intellectual property and corporate investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    21. Chun-Ai Ma & Yanbo Jin, 2016. "What Drives the Relationship Between Financial Flexibility and Firm Performance: Investment Scale or Investment Efficiency? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(9), pages 2043-2055, September.
    22. Aron, Janine, 2000. "Growth and Institutions: A Review of the Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 15(1), pages 99-135, February.
    23. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 314-319.
    24. Qi, Yaxuan & Roth, Lukas & Wald, John K., 2010. "Political rights and the cost of debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 202-226, February.
    25. Gregory, Richard P., 2020. "Political risk and financial flexibility in BRICS countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 166-174.
    26. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Garg, Bhavesh & Gunadi, Iman & Rishanty, Arnita, 2024. "How are green stocks and monetary policy related?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    27. Satish Kumar & Amar Rao, 2024. "Assessing and Mitigating the Impact of Geopolitical Risk Uncertainty on the Indian Financial Sector: A Policy Perspective," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 27(3), pages 483-526, July.
    28. Schnitzer, Monika, 1997. "Debt vs. Foreign Direct Investment: The Impact of Sovereign Risk on the Structure of International Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 1608, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    29. Corbet, Shaen & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Meegan, Andrew, 2018. "Long-term stock market volatility and the influence of terrorist attacks in Europe," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 118-131.
    30. David J. Denis & Stephen B. McKeon, 2012. "Debt Financing and Financial Flexibility Evidence from Proactive Leverage Increases," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(6), pages 1897-1929.
    31. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chuan Zhang & Dan Ma, 2023. "Can the Social Network Hinder the Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Uncertainty? New Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(15), pages 4088-4106, December.
    32. Ramiah, Vikash & Wallace, Damien & Veron, Jose Francisco & Reddy, Krishna & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The effects of recent terrorist attacks on risk and return in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 13-22.
    33. Khoo, Joye & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong), 2021. "Does geopolitical uncertainty affect corporate financing? Evidence from MIDAS regression," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    34. Tarkom, Augustine & Ujah, Nacasius U., 2023. "Inflation, interest rate, and firm efficiency: The impact of policy uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    35. Wang, Qiang & Dong, Zequn & Li, Rongrong & Wang, Lili, 2022. "Renewable energy and economic growth: New insight from country risks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    36. Chi-Chuan Lee & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2018. "The Impact of Country Risk on Income Inequality: A Multilevel Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 139-162, February.
    37. Le, Anh-Tuan & Tran, Thao Phuong, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk matter for corporate investment? Evidence from emerging countries in Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    38. Eckhard Janeba, 2000. "Tax Competition When Governments Lack Commitment: Excess Capacity as a Countervailing Threat," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1508-1519, December.
    39. Andrea Gamba & Alexander Triantis, 2008. "The Value of Financial Flexibility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2263-2296, October.
    40. Gungoraydinoglu, Ali & Çolak, Gönül & Öztekin, Özde, 2017. "Political environment, financial intermediation costs, and financing patterns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 167-192.
    41. Kotcharin, Suntichai & Maneenop, Sakkakom, 2020. "Geopolitical risk and corporate cash holdings in the shipping industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    42. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1992. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(4), pages 829-841, July.
    43. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1984. "A Theory of Expropriation and Deviations from Perfect Capital Mobility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 16-40, March.
    44. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    45. Mr. Adolfo Barajas & Thorsten Beck & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi, 2013. "Too Cold, Too Hot, or Just Right? Assessing Financial Sector Development Across the Globe," IMF Working Papers 2013/081, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and dynamic connectedness between commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    47. Shen, Huayu & Liang, Yue & Li, Hanwen & Liu, Jie & Lu, Guangxi, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk promote mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in energy and electric power industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    48. Nguyen, Duc Nguyen & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Dang, Le Phuong Xuan, 2022. "Uncertainty and corporate default risk: Novel evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    49. Maria‐Teresa Marchica & Roberto Mura, 2010. "Financial Flexibility, Investment Ability, and Firm Value: Evidence from Firms with Spare Debt Capacity," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 1339-1365, December.
    50. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Hsu, Yu-Ling, 2017. "Peer bank behavior, economic policy uncertainty, and leverage decision of financial institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 79-91.
    51. Rangan Gupta & Amine Lahiani & Chi-Chuan Lee & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2019. "Asymmetric dynamics of insurance premium: the impacts of output and economic policy uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1959-1978, December.
    52. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    53. Alter, Adrian & Elekdag, Selim, 2020. "Emerging market corporate leverage and global financial conditions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    54. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Policy risks, technological risks and stock returns: New evidence from the US stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 359-365.
    55. Yung, Kenneth & Li, DeQing Diane & Jian, Yi, 2015. "The value of corporate financial flexibility in emerging countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 32, pages 25-41.
    56. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and bank loan contracting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 281-286.
    57. Abe de Jong & Marno Verbeek & Patrick Verwijmeren, 2012. "Does Financial Flexibility Reduce Investment Distortions?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 243-259, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xiao, Shunyi, 2021. "Policy-related risk and corporate financing behavior: Evidence from China’s listed companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 539-547.
    2. Le, Anh-Tuan & Tran, Thao Phuong, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk matter for corporate investment? Evidence from emerging countries in Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Gregory, Richard P., 2020. "Political risk and financial flexibility in BRICS countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 166-174.
    4. Xiaodong Teng & Bao-Guang Chang & Kun-Shan Wu, 2021. "The Role of Financial Flexibility on Enterprise Sustainable Development during the COVID-19 Crisis—A Consideration of Tangible Assets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, January.
    5. Jia, Shaoqing & Yang, Liuyong & Zhou, Fangzhao, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Lu, Chien-Lin & Yang, Hsuan-Hua & Yeh, Chia-Wei, 2024. "The role of financial flexibility in corporate cash donations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Anshu Agrawal, 2020. "Modified Total Interpretive Structural Model of Corporate Financial Flexibility," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 21(4), pages 369-388, December.
    8. Ren, Xiaohang & Cao, Yuxuan & Liu, Pei Jose & Han, Dun, 2023. "Does geopolitical risk affect firms' idiosyncratic volatility? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Bao-Guang Chang & Kun-Shan Wu, 2021. "The nonlinear relationship between financial flexibility and enterprise risk-taking during the COVID-19 pandemic in Taiwan’s semiconductor industry," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 307-333, June.
    10. Cao, Ngan Duong & Trinh, Vu Quang & Nguyen, Tam Duc, 2025. "Geopolitical uncertainty and firm tail risk: Evidence from energy-focused economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2020. "Insurance activity, real output, and geopolitical risk: Fresh evidence from BRICS," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 207-215.
    12. Hu, Jiamin & Li, Kailun & Xia, Yifei & Zhang, Jianing, 2023. "Gender diversity and financial flexibility: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    13. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Yong-Yi, 2021. "Oil price shocks, geopolitical risks, and green bond market dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    14. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Haider Ali & Ana Ercília José, 2022. "Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and Threats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
    15. Snarska, Małgorzata & Frydrych, Sylwia & Łukowski, Michał & Czech, Maria & Perez, Katarzyna, 2025. "Semiconductor game of thrones: A comprehensive study of geopolitical and equity market uncertainty transmission," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    16. Md. Rashidul Islam & Monirul Alam Hossain & Mohammad Shamsu Uddin & Dawit Teclemariam Bahta, 2020. "Does Financial Flexibility foster Investment Efficiency? Evidence from an Emerging Market," Asian Business Review, Asian Business Consortium, vol. 10(2), pages 121-136.
    17. Bajaj, Yukti & Kashiramka, Smita & Singh, Shveta, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and leverage dynamics: Evidence from an emerging economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Quang Khai Nguyen, 2024. "How Does Financial Flexibility Strategy Impact on Risk Management Effectiveness?," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, May.
    19. Osama D. Sweidan, 2023. "The Effect of Geopolitical Risk on Income Inequality: Evidence from a Panel Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 47-66, June.
    20. Choi, Jiyoon, 2025. "Financial flexibility or financial constraints? Zero-leverage firms during the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:94:y:2025:i:c:s0927538x25002793. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.