Climate financing needs in the land sector under the Paris Agreement: An assessment of developing country perspectives

This paper explores the potential of climate finance to support developing country efforts to shift away from unsustainable land use patterns in the context of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. We pursue two research objectives here. Through a meta-analysis of 40 developing country Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), we provide, first, a comprehensive qualitative overview of developing country perspectives on climate financing needs for mitigation and adaptation activities in the land use, land-use change and forestry sectors (LULUCF). Second, we examine whether countries acknowledge a role for domestic financing and international and domestic fiscal policy reform within these NDCs, as a way to address drivers of land use conversion. We supplement our meta-analysis of NDCs with a brief assessment of climate financing in two forest-rich countries, Brazil and Indonesia. Our analysis of NDCs reveals that only 14 of the 40 countries provide clear cost estimates for proposed climate-related forest activities, with most activities being conditional on provision of international climate finance. While some discuss domestic sources, few note the need for (international or national) fiscal policy reform to counteract direct and underlying drivers of land use conversion. The challenges inherent in doing so are also highlighted in our discussion of Brazil and Indonesia. Our findings suggest that, while much attention is directed to inadequate quantities of international climate finance, a lack of fiscal reform remains a key hurdle to realizing transformative change in the land use sector.