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Steel consumption and economic growth in Korea: Long-term and short-term evidence

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  • Huh, Kwang-Sook

Abstract

This paper examines the long-term and short-term causal relationships between steel consumption and economic activity in Korea between 1975 and 2008 using vector error correction and vector autoregression models. This study disaggregates steel products and steel-consuming industries because the consumption of a specific steel product is closely linked to the output of the corresponding industry. This approach can provide a clear and reliable causal relationship between variable pairs. The results show that total steel consumption and GDP have a long-term equilibrium relationship, running from GDP to total steel consumption. However, a long-term bi-directional causal relationship exists between flat products consumption and the manufacturing GDP. Flat products consumption also demonstrates the long-term relationships between steel-consuming industries, such as automobile, shipbuilding, and fabricated metal product, but causal directions are mixed, depending on variable pairs. These results imply that the reciprocal growth between these industries has contributed to the robust competitiveness of Korean manufacturing. Because Korea has maintained its export-oriented industrial policy based on manufacturing, the steel and steel-consuming industries are expected to play a significant role in economic growth far into the future.

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  • Huh, Kwang-Sook, 2011. "Steel consumption and economic growth in Korea: Long-term and short-term evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 107-113, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:36:y:2011:i:2:p:107-113
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    Cited by:

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    3. Naoki Sekiguchi, 2017. "Trade specialisation patterns in major steelmaking economies: the role of advanced economies and the implications for rapid growth in emerging market and developing economies in the global steel marke," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(3), pages 207-227, October.
    4. Mario Coccia, 2012. "Dynamics of the steel and long-term equilibrium hypothesis across leading geo-economic players: empirical evidence for supporting a policy formulation," CERIS Working Paper 201202, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
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    6. Andretta Tsebe, 2022. "Business Cycles and Growth of South African Steel Manufacturing Industry," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 14(1), pages 6-22.
    7. Mathieu, Valentin & Roda, Jean-Marc, 2023. "A meta-analysis on wood trade flow modeling concepts," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Namahoro, Jean Pierre & Qiaosheng, Wu & Hui, Su, 2022. "The copper production and economic growth nexus across the regional and global levels," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Wang, Peng & Jiang, Zeyi & Geng, Xinyi & Hao, Shiyu & Zhang, Xinxin, 2014. "Quantification of Chinese steel cycle flow: Historical status and future options," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 191-199.
    10. Youn, Sun Hee & Yang, Ma Ga (Mark) & Kim, Jin Hwan & Hong, Paul, 2014. "Supply chain information capabilities and performance outcomes: An empirical study of Korean steel suppliers," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 369-380.
    11. Crompton, Paul, 2015. "Explaining variation in steel consumption in the OECD," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 239-246.
    12. Torbat, Sheida & Khashei, Mehdi & Bijari, Mehdi, 2018. "A hybrid probabilistic fuzzy ARIMA model for consumption forecasting in commodity markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 22-31.
    13. Zhongxin Ni & Xing Lu & Wenjun Xue, 2021. "Does the belt and road initiative resolve the steel overcapacity in China? Evidence from a dynamic model averaging approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 279-307, July.
    14. Jaunky, Vishal Chandr, 2013. "A cointegration and causality analysis of copper consumption and economic growth in rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 628-639.
    15. Hossein Kamalzadeh & Saeid Nassim Sobhan & Azam Boskabadi & Mohsen Hatami & Amin Gharehyakheh, 2019. "Modeling and Prediction of Iran's Steel Consumption Based on Economic Activity Using Support Vector Machines," Papers 1912.02373, arXiv.org.

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