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Dynamics of the steel and long-term equilibrium hypothesis across leading geo-economic players: empirical evidence for supporting a policy formulation

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Abstract

The aim of this study is twofold – on the one hand, to report a flow analysis based on historical trends of steel, from 1997 to 2008, across some leading geo-economic players; on the other, the analysis of long-term relationship between steel consumption and economic growth by the sensitivity of the demand for steel consumption to a change in the national income. Results show that steel production and consumption have different economic behaviour across some countries: China and Italy have higher average annual growth of production of crude (CHN 9.75%; ITA 0.83%), steel crude use equivalent (CHN 8.37%; ITA 1.95%) and steel use finished products (CHN 9.38%; ITA 1.65%), whereas the US have higher average annual growth of imports (13.23%) and China of exports of semi-finished/finished steel products (20.38%). In addition, the estimated average elasticity of consumption of steel on national income statistical per countries, based on unidirectional causality that runs from national income to steel consumption, shows de facto positive values, except in UK economies. The analysis here provides main information on the industrial structure of countries and for designing industrial policies aimed to support patterns of economic growth in current turbulent and fast-changing markets.

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  • Mario Coccia, 2012. "Dynamics of the steel and long-term equilibrium hypothesis across leading geo-economic players: empirical evidence for supporting a policy formulation," CERIS Working Paper 201202, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
  • Handle: RePEc:csc:cerisp:201202
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    1. David R. Stockman, 2001. "Balanced-Budget Rules: Welfare Loss and Optimal Policies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(2), pages 438-459, July.
    2. Chen, Dongling & Clements, Kenneth W. & Roberts, E. John & Weber, E. Juerg, 1991. "Forecasting steel demand in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 196-210, September.
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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