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Electricity consumption-economic growth Nexus: An aggregated and disaggregated causality analysis in India and Pakistan

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  • Abbas, Faisal
  • Choudhury, Nirmalya

Abstract

This paper empirically examined the causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in two densely populated countries in South Asia, India and Pakistan. The causality analysis was estimated at aggregated and disaggregated level where the focus of the analysis was on the agricultural sector. The disaggregated causality analysis indicated a bi-directional causality between the agricultural electricity consumption and the agricultural GDP in India, while in Pakistan the causality was found to run from agricultural GDP to agricultural electricity consumption. At the aggregated level, India confirmed conservation hypothesis while Pakistan confirmed feedback hypothesis. From the public policy point of view, it can be inferred that, at the macro level, any electricity conservation measures in India will not have an affect on India's increasing economic growth prospects and hence a policy-favourite supply-enhancement strategy in the form of increasing electricity generation needs to be balanced with a demand-management strategy. In case of Pakistan any such policy recommendation is difficult given the bidirectional nature of causality.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbas, Faisal & Choudhury, Nirmalya, 2013. "Electricity consumption-economic growth Nexus: An aggregated and disaggregated causality analysis in India and Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 538-553.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:4:p:538-553
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.09.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Electricity consumption; Agriculture growth; Causality; Error Correction Modelling; India; Pakistan;

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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