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A decision support methodology for strategic planning in maritime transportation


  • Fagerholt, Kjetil
  • Christiansen, Marielle
  • Magnus Hvattum, Lars
  • Johnsen, Trond A.V.
  • Vabø, Thor J.


This paper presents a decision support methodology for strategic planning in tramp and industrial shipping. The proposed methodology combines simulation and optimization, where a Monte Carlo simulation framework is built around an optimization-based decision support system for short-term routing and scheduling. The simulation proceeds by considering a series of short-term routing and scheduling problems using a rolling horizon principle where information is revealed as time goes by. The approach is flexible in the sense that it can easily be configured to provide decision support for a wide range of strategic planning problems, such as fleet size and mix problems, analysis of long-term contracts and contract terms. The methodology is tested on a real case for a major Norwegian shipping company. The methodology provided valuable decision support on important strategic planning problems for the shipping company.

Suggested Citation

  • Fagerholt, Kjetil & Christiansen, Marielle & Magnus Hvattum, Lars & Johnsen, Trond A.V. & Vabø, Thor J., 2010. "A decision support methodology for strategic planning in maritime transportation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 465-474, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:38:y:2010:i:6:p:465-474

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Der-Chiang & Chang, Che-Jung & Chen, Chien-Chih & Chen, Wen-Chih, 2012. "Forecasting short-term electricity consumption using the adaptive grey-based approach—An Asian case," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 767-773.
    2. Hamidreza Eskandari & Ehsan Mahmoodi, 2016. "A simulation-based multi-objective optimization study of the fleet sizing problem in the offshore industry," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 18(4), pages 436-457, December.
    3. Mørch, Ove & Fagerholt, Kjetil & Pantuso, Giovanni & Rakke, Jørgen, 2017. "Maximizing the rate of return on the capital employed in shipping capacity renewal," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 42-53.
    4. Arslan, Ayşe N. & Papageorgiou, Dimitri J., 2017. "Bulk ship fleet renewal and deployment under uncertainty: A multi-stage stochastic programming approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 69-96.
    5. Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert & Lawrence, Michael & Stephens, Greg, 2011. "Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 242-253, June.
    6. Sterna, Malgorzata, 2011. "A survey of scheduling problems with late work criteria," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 120-129, April.
    7. Bakkehaug, Rikard & Eidem, Eirik Stamsø & Fagerholt, Kjetil & Hvattum, Lars Magnus, 2014. "A stochastic programming formulation for strategic fleet renewal in shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 60-76.
    8. Christiansen, Marielle & Fagerholt, Kjetil & Nygreen, Bjørn & Ronen, David, 2013. "Ship routing and scheduling in the new millennium," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(3), pages 467-483.
    9. Pantuso, Giovanni & Fagerholt, Kjetil & Hvattum, Lars Magnus, 2014. "A survey on maritime fleet size and mix problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 341-349.
    10. De Bruecker, Philippe & Van den Bergh, Jorne & Beliën, Jeroen & Demeulemeester, Erik, 2015. "A model enhancement heuristic for building robust aircraft maintenance personnel rosters with stochastic constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(2), pages 661-673.
    11. Lev, Benjamin & Kowalski, Krzysztof, 2011. "Modeling fixed-charge problems with polynomials," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 725-728, December.
    12. Meng, Qiang & Wang, Shuaian & Lee, Chung-Yee, 2015. "A tailored branch-and-price approach for a joint tramp ship routing and bunkering problem," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-19.


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