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Task difficulty and overconfidence. Evidence from distance running

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  • Krawczyk, Michał
  • Wilamowski, Maciej

Abstract

In this project we investigate the impact of task difficulty on overestimation, using data from over 1.6 million amateur distance runners. Overestimation is measured in terms of relative error in forecasted finishing time as well as relative slowing down in the latter half of the course. Longer (esp. the marathon compared to 10 km) and slower races are understood to be more difficult than shorter and faster races. Likewise, comparatively slow runners are assumed to be facing a relatively difficult task. The general finding is that greater task difficulty leads to greater overestimation, a clear tendency only weakly moderated by demographic variables such as gender and age.

Suggested Citation

  • Krawczyk, Michał & Wilamowski, Maciej, 2019. "Task difficulty and overconfidence. Evidence from distance running," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:75:y:2019:i:pb:s016748701730747x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2018.12.002
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    2. Hoyer, Britta & van Huizen, Thomas & Keijzer, Linda & Rezaei, Sarah & Rosenkranz, Stephanie & Westbrock, Bastian, 2020. "Gender, competitiveness, and task difficulty: Evidence from the field," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Soetevent, Adriaan R., 2022. "Short run reference points and long run performance. (No) Evidence from running data," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

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