IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joepsy/v31y2010i4p643-658.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Partial knowledge is a dangerous thing - On the value of asymmetric fundamental information in asset markets

Author

Listed:
  • Kirchler, Michael

Abstract

We present results from experimental asset markets and simulations in which traders are asymmetrically informed about the fundamental value of an asset. To control for learning we run the experimental markets three times with identical subjects at identical information levels. With questionnaires we further check whether the results are driven by subjects' overconfidence. To obtain benchmarks and to measure the impact of the asymmetric information structure on traders' abnormal returns, we run two simulation settings. In the experimental markets insiders outperform the market and uninformed computerized random traders perform equally well compared to average informed traders. This is in line with the results of the equilibrium simulation in which agents choose between a random strategy and their fundamental strategy until equilibrium is reached. Similar to the equilibrium simulation, insiders mainly use a fundamental strategy while average and weak informed subjects ignore the fundamental information given to them. Our benchmark simulations also show that the latter would have ended up worse if they would have used their fundamental information in the experiment. When looking for behavioral explanations we find no evidence for overconfidence and learning in the markets, thus concluding that the information structure is the main driver of our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirchler, Michael, 2010. "Partial knowledge is a dangerous thing - On the value of asymmetric fundamental information in asset markets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 643-658, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:31:y:2010:i:4:p:643-658
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-4870(10)00058-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bence Toth & Enrico Scalas, 2007. "The value of information in financial markets: An agent-based simulation," Papers 0712.2687, arXiv.org.
    2. Kirchler, Michael, 2009. "Underreaction to fundamental information and asymmetry in mispricing between bullish and bearish markets. An experimental study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 491-506, February.
    3. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1982. "Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational-Expectations Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 663-698, August.
    4. Martin Dufwenberg & Tobias Lindqvist & Evan Moore, 2005. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1731-1737, December.
    5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    6. Seyhun, H. Nejat, 1986. "Insiders' profits, costs of trading, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 189-212, June.
    7. Huber, Jurgen & Kirchler, Michael & Sutter, Matthias, 2008. "Is more information always better: Experimental financial markets with cumulative information," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 86-104, January.
    8. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    9. Davis, Fred D. & Lohse, Gerald L. & Kottemann, Jeffrey E., 1994. "Harmful effects of seemingly helpful information on forecasts of stock earnings," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 253-267, June.
    10. Thomas St?ckl & Michael Kirchler, 2010. "Trading strategies and trading profits in experimental asset markets with cumulative information," Working Papers 2010-09, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    11. B. Tóth & E. Scalas & J. Huber & M. Kirchler, 2007. "The value of information in a multi-agent market model," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 55(1), pages 115-120, January.
    12. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    13. Lin, Ji-Chai & Howe, John S, 1990. " Insider Trading in the OTC Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1273-1284, September.
    14. Malkiel, Burton G, 1995. " Returns from Investing in Equity Mutual Funds 1971 to 1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 549-572, June.
    15. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    16. Reshmaan N. Hussam & David Porter & Vernon L. Smith, 2008. "Thar She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 924-937, June.
    17. Lakonishok, Josef & Lee, Inmoo, 2001. "Are Insider Trades Informative?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 79-111.
    18. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    19. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "Passive Investment Strategies and Efficient Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10.
    20. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Glenn Boyle & Gerald Ward, 2016. "Do Better Informed Investors Always Do Better?," Working Papers in Economics 16/29, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Abreu, Margarida & Mendes, Victor, 2012. "Information, overconfidence and trading: Do the sources of information matter?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 868-881.
    3. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2017. "Information (Non)Aggregation in Markets with Costly Signal Acquisition," Working Papers halshs-01686493, HAL.
    4. Chakrabarty, Anindya & De, Anupam & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Dubey, Rameshwar, 2015. "Investment horizon heterogeneity and wavelet: Overview and further research directions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 45-61.
    5. Anindya Chakrabarty & Anupam De & Gautam Bandyopadhyay, 2016. "Horizon heterogeneity, institutional constraint and managerial myopia: a multi-frequency perspective on ELSS," International Journal of Business Excellence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 18-47.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:31:y:2010:i:4:p:643-658. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/joep .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.