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Speculating on home improvements

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  • Choi, Hyun-Soo
  • Hong, Harrison
  • Scheinkman, Jose

Abstract

We develop a speculation-based theory of home improvements. Housing services are produced from a mix of land and structures. Homeowners optimistic about future prices for these services speculate by making improvements, which we model as them increasing their structures holding fixed their land. The recoup value (the difference between the resale value of improvements and construction costs) is simultaneously increasing in home price appreciation and falls with construction cost growth. This prediction stands in contrast to a consumption-cum-financial constraints motive in which rising home prices loosen financial constraints and lead to lower recoup values. We provide evidence consistent with a speculative motive using data on the costs and recoup values of remodeling projects across US cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Choi, Hyun-Soo & Hong, Harrison & Scheinkman, Jose, 2014. "Speculating on home improvements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 609-624.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:111:y:2014:i:3:p:609-624
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.11.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    2. John Y. Campbell, 2006. "Household Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1553-1604, August.
    3. Gilchrist, Simon & Himmelberg, Charles P. & Huberman, Gur, 2005. "Do stock price bubbles influence corporate investment?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 805-827, May.
    4. Harrison Hong & José Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2006. "Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1073-1117, June.
    5. Montgomery, Claire, 1992. "Explaining home improvement in the context of household investment in residential housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 326-350, November.
    6. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    7. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    8. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September.
    9. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Bracke & Silvana Tenreyro, 2021. "History Dependence in the Housing Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 420-443, April.
    2. Julia M. Puaschunder, 2023. "Finance Followership," RAIS Conference Proceedings 2022-2023 0249, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    3. Ding Ding & Weicheng Lian, 2018. "The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China," IMF Working Papers 2018/261, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 25702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Thomas Crossley & Peter Levell & Hamish Low, 2020. "House Price Rises and Borrowing to Invest," IFS Working Papers W20/2, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Bian, Xun, 2017. "Housing equity dynamics and home improvements," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 29-41.
    7. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019.
    8. Erasmo Giambona & Rafael P. Ribas, 2023. "Unveiling the Price of Obscenity: Evidence From Closing Prostitution Windows in Amsterdam," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 677-705, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculation; Home improvements; Real estate; Remodeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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