The ethics of intergenerational risk

This paper addresses the evaluation of intergenerational allocations in an uncertain world. It axiomatically characterizes a class of criteria, named reference-dependent utilitarian, that assess allocations relative to a stochastic reference. The characterized criteria combine social concerns for ex-ante equity—capturing the idea that generations should be treated equitably before risk is resolved—and for ex-post fairness—capturing the idea that generations should be treated equitably after risk is resolved. Social discounting is endogenous and is governed by two opposite forces: extinction risk pushes society to reduce the weight on future generations, while (uninsurable) technological risk pushes society to increase the weight on future generations.