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Future fiscal and budgetary shocks

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  • Hoon, Hian Teck
  • Phelps, Edmund S.

Abstract

We study the effects of future tax and budgetary shocks in a non-monetary and possibly non-Ricardian economy. An (unanticipated) temporary labor tax cut to be effective on a given future date--a delayed "debt bomb"--causes at once a drop in the (unit) value placed on the firms' business asset, the customer, with the result that share prices, the hourly wage, and employment drop in tandem. This paradox of reduced activity through announcement of future "stimulus" does not hinge on an upward jump of long interest rates. A future tax-rate cut lacking a "sunset" provision has the same negative effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoon, Hian Teck & Phelps, Edmund S., 2008. "Future fiscal and budgetary shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 499-518, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:143:y:2008:i:1:p:499-518
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Edmund S. Phelps, 2008. "Macroeconomics for a Modern Economy," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 52(1), pages 3-22, March.
    2. Hoon, Hian Teck & Phelps, Edmund S., 2008. "Future fiscal and budgetary shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, pages 499-518.
    3. Petrucci, Alberto & Phelps, Edmund S., 2009. "Two-sector perspectives on the effects of payroll tax cuts and their financing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 176-190, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Future shocks Business assets Employment;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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