IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v228y2024ics0167268124003809.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Local far-right demonstrations and nationwide public attitudes towards migration

Author

Listed:
  • Freitas-Monteiro, Teresa
  • Prömel, Christopher

Abstract

One of the primary objectives of protests and demonstrations is to bring social, political, or economic issues to the attention of politicians and the wider population. While protests can have a mobilising and persuading effect, they may reduce support for their cause if they are perceived as a threat to public order. In this study, we look at how local or spontaneously organised right-wing xenophobic demonstrations affect concerns about hostility towards foreigners and worries about immigration among natives in Germany. We use a regression discontinuity design to compare the attitudes of individuals interviewed in the days immediately before a large far-right demonstration and individuals interviewed in the days immediately after that demonstration. Our results show that large far-right demonstrations lead to a substantial increase in worries about hostility towards foreigners of 13.7% of a standard deviation. In contrast, worries about immigration are not affected by the demonstrations, indicating that the protesters are not successful in swaying public opinion in their favour. In the heterogeneity analyses, we uncover some polarisation in the population: While worries about hostility against foreigners increase and worries about immigration decrease in left-leaning regions, both types of worries increase in districts where centre-right parties are more successful. Lastly, we also show that people become more politically interested in response to protests, mainly benefiting left-wing parties, and are more likely to wish to donate money to help refugees.

Suggested Citation

  • Freitas-Monteiro, Teresa & Prömel, Christopher, 2024. "Local far-right demonstrations and nationwide public attitudes towards migration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:228:y:2024:i:c:s0167268124003809
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106766
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268124003809
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106766?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zackary Okun Dunivin & Harry Yaojun Yan & Jelani Ince & Fabio Rojas, 2022. "Black Lives Matter protests shift public discourse," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119(10), pages 2117320119-, March.
    2. Deole, Sumit S., 2019. "Justice delayed is assimilation denied: Right-wing terror and immigrants' assimilation in Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 69-78.
    3. Felix Oberholzer-Gee & Joel Waldfogel, 2009. "Media Markets and Localism: Does Local News en Español Boost Hispanic Voter Turnout?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2120-2128, December.
    4. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01245557 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sergei Guriev & Nikita Melnikov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2021. "3G Internet and Confidence in Government," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2533-2613.
    6. Maja Adena & Ruben Enikolopov & Maria Petrova & Veronica Santarosa & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2015. "Radio and the Rise of The Nazis in Prewar Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(4), pages 1885-1939.
    7. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    8. Daniel Graeber & Felicitas Schikora, 2021. "Hate Is Too Great a Burden to Bear: Hate Crimes and the Mental Health of Refugees," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1130, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    9. Eady, Gregory & Hjorth, Frederik & Dinesen, Peter Thisted, 2023. "Do Violent Protests Affect Expressions of Party Identity? Evidence from the Capitol Insurrection," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 117(3), pages 1151-1157, August.
    10. Stefano DellaVigna & Ethan Kaplan, 2007. "The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 1187-1234.
    11. Benesch, Christine & Loretz, Simon & Stadelmann, David & Thomas, Tobias, 2019. "Media coverage and immigration worries: Econometric evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 52-67.
    12. Enos, Ryan D. & Kaufman, Aaron R. & Sands, Melissa L., 2019. "Can Violent Protest Change Local Policy Support? Evidence from the Aftermath of the 1992 Los Angeles Riot," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1012-1028, November.
    13. Reny, Tyler T. & Newman, Benjamin J., 2021. "The Opinion-Mobilizing Effect of Social Protest against Police Violence: Evidence from the 2020 George Floyd Protests," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1499-1507, November.
    14. Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare & Matias Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2016. "rdlocrand: a Stata Package for Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs under Local Randomizati," 2016 Stata Conference 25, Stata Users Group.
    15. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2018. "Manipulation testing based on density discontinuity," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 18(1), pages 234-261, March.
    16. Wasow, Omar, 2020. "Agenda Seeding: How 1960s Black Protests Moved Elites, Public Opinion and Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 638-659, August.
    17. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro & Michael Sinkinson, 2011. "The Effect of Newspaper Entry and Exit on Electoral Politics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2980-3018, December.
    18. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    19. Sarah R. Cohodes & Joshua S. Goodman, 2014. "Merit Aid, College Quality, and College Completion: Massachusetts' Adams Scholarship as an In-Kind Subsidy," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 251-285, October.
    20. Mastrorocco, Nicola & Minale, Luigi, 2018. "News media and crime perceptions: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 230-255.
    21. Cattaneo Matias D. & Frandsen Brigham R. & Titiunik Rocío, 2015. "Randomization Inference in the Regression Discontinuity Design: An Application to Party Advantages in the U.S. Senate," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24.
    22. Abdelgadir, Aala & Fouka, Vasiliki, 2020. "Political Secularism and Muslim Integration in the West: Assessing the Effects of the French Headscarf Ban," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 707-723, August.
    23. Kahan, Dan M. & Peters, Ellen & Dawson, Erica Cantrell & Slovic, Paul, 2017. "Motivated numeracy and enlightened self-government," Behavioural Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 54-86, May.
    24. Guido Friebel & Juan Gallego & Mariapia Mendola, 2013. "Xenophobic attacks, migration intentions, and networks: evidence from the South of Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 555-591, April.
    25. Margherita Fort & Andrea Ichino & Enrico Rettore & Giulio Zanella, 2022. "Multicutoff RD designs with observations located at each cutoff: problems and solutions," FBK-IRVAPP Working Papers 2022-01, Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies (IRVAPP), Bruno Kessler Foundation.
    26. Manekin, Devorah & Mitts, Tamar, 2022. "Effective for Whom? Ethnic Identity and Nonviolent Resistance," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 161-180, February.
    27. Dan A. Black & Jose Galdo & Jeffrey A. Smith, 2007. "Evaluating the Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services System Using a Regression Discontinuity Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 104-107, May.
    28. Andreas Madestam & Daniel Shoag & Stan Veuger & David Yanagizawa-Drott, 2013. "Do Political Protests Matter? Evidence from the Tea Party Movement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1633-1685.
    29. repec:cup:apsrev:v:113:y:2019:i:04:p:1012-1028_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Matias D. Cattaneo & Roc ́ıo Titiunik & Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare, 2016. "Inference in regression discontinuity designs under local randomization," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 16(2), pages 331-367, June.
    31. Soumyajit Mazumder, 2018. "The Persistent Effect of U.S. Civil Rights Protests on Political Attitudes," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 922-935, October.
    32. Jacopo Bassetto & Teresa Freitas Monteiro, 2024. "Immigrants’ Returns Intentions and Job Search Behavior When the Home Country Is Unsafe," CESifo Working Paper Series 10908, CESifo.
    33. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell & Roc ́ıo Titiunik, 2017. "rdrobust: Software for regression-discontinuity designs," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 17(2), pages 372-404, June.
    34. Goebel Jan & Grabka Markus M. & Liebig Stefan & Kroh Martin & Richter David & Schröder Carsten & Schupp Jürgen, 2019. "The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(2), pages 345-360, April.
    35. Steinhardt, Max F., 2018. "The Impact of Xenophobic Violence on the Integration of Immigrants," IZA Discussion Papers 11781, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    36. Oliver Engist & Felix Schafmeister, 2022. "Do political protests mobilize voters? Evidence from the Black Lives Matter protests," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 293-313, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Freitas Monteiro, Teresa & Prömel, Christopher, 2024. "Local far-right demonstrations and nationwide public attitudes toward migration," Discussion Papers 2024/3, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Ari Hyytinen & Jaakko Meriläinen & Tuukka Saarimaa & Otto Toivanen & Janne Tukiainen, 2018. "When does regression discontinuity design work? Evidence from random election outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 1019-1051, July.
    3. Nupia Martínez, Oscar & Álvarez Gallo, Carlos Andrés, 2024. "The Impact of Massive Protests on Individual Attitudes," Documentos CEDE 21190, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Daniel Graeber & Felicitas Schikora, 2021. "Hate Is Too Great a Burden to Bear: Hate Crimes and the Mental Health of Refugees," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1130, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    5. Eibich, Peter & Siedler, Thomas, 2020. "Retirement, intergenerational time transfers, and fertility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Quinckhardt, Matthias, 2023. "The value of a party: Local politics and the allocation of intergovernmental transfers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Atı̇la Abdulkadı̇roğlu & Joshua D. Angrist & Yusuke Narita & Parag Pathak, 2022. "Breaking Ties: Regression Discontinuity Design Meets Market Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 117-151, January.
    8. Marco Manacorda & Andrea Tesei, 2020. "Liberation Technology: Mobile Phones and Political Mobilization in Africa," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 533-567, March.
    9. Fort, Margherita & Ichino, Andrea & Rettore, Enrico & Zanella, Giulio, 2022. "Multi-cutoff RD designs with observations located at each cutoff: problems and solutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 16974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocío Titiunik & Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare, 2020. "Analysis of regression-discontinuity designs with multiple cutoffs or multiple scores," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 20(4), pages 866-891, December.
    11. Pastore, Chiara & Jones, Andrew M., 2023. "Human capital consequences of missing out on a grammar school education," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Piolatto, Amedeo & Schuett, Florian, 2015. "Media competition and electoral politics," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 80-93.
    13. Sekou Keita & Thomas Renault & Jérôme Valette, 2024. "The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 322-362.
    14. Jakub Grossmann & Štĕpán Jurajda & Felix Roesel, 2021. "Forced Migration, Staying Minorities, and New Societies: Evidence from Post-War Czechoslovakia," CESifo Working Paper Series 8950, CESifo.
    15. Andrew McEachin & Thurston Domina & Andrew Penner, 2020. "Heterogeneous Effects of Early Algebra across California Middle Schools," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 772-800, June.
    16. Buhui Qiu & Gary Gang Tian & Haijian Zeng, 2022. "How Does Deleveraging Affect Funding Market Liquidity?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4568-4601, June.
    17. Cuong Viet Nguyen & Finn Tarp, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Labor Supply: New Evidence on Impacts and Mechanisms," DERG working paper series 23-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Development Economics Research Group (DERG).
    18. Cheng, Lingguo & Lu, Yunfeng, 2024. "Does retirement make people more risk averse?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 135-155.
    19. Vanessa Cirulli & Giuliano Resce & Marco Ventura, 2024. "Co-payment exemption and healthcare consumption: quasi-experimental evidence from Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 355-380, July.
    20. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Akyol, Pelin & Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. & Demirci, Murat & Kirdar, Murat Güray, 2023. "Maternal Education and Early Child Development: The Roles of Parental Support for Learning, Learning Materials, and Father Characteristics," IZA Discussion Papers 16328, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Protests; Right-wing Extremism; Xenophobia; Attitudes; Polarisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:228:y:2024:i:c:s0167268124003809. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.