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Psychological momentum in contests: The case of scoring before half-time in football

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  • Gauriot, Romain
  • Page, Lionel

Abstract

We study the existence of a psychological momentum commonly believed to exist in a real world contest: the effect of scoring just before half-time in association football (soccer). Using high quality data on football matches, we isolate a quasi-experimental situation to identify the effect of scoring on later performance. We carefully select shots toward the goal, taken from a similar location on the pitch, which landed on the goal posts. Using the non-goal shots as conterfactuals to the scoring shots, we estimate the causal effect of scoring at different times in the first half. We do not find any evidence of an effect of scoring before half-time. This result contributes to the debate on whether psychological momentum exists in contests.

Suggested Citation

  • Gauriot, Romain & Page, Lionel, 2018. "Psychological momentum in contests: The case of scoring before half-time in football," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 137-168.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:149:y:2018:i:c:p:137-168
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2018.02.015
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    6. Konrad, Kai A., 2009. "Strategy and Dynamics in Contests," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199549603.
    7. Cohen-Zada, Danny & Krumer, Alex & Shtudiner, Ze'ev, 2017. "Psychological momentum and gender," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 66-81.
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    Cited by:

    1. Morgulev, Elia & Azar, Ofer H. & Galily, Yair & Bar-Eli, Michael, 2020. "The role of initial success in competition: An analysis of early lead effects in NBA overtimes," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Evans, Andrew E. & Crosby, Paul & Shin, Sunny Y., 2023. "Psychological momentum among non-experts: Evidence from club golfers," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Meier, Philippe & Flepp, Raphael & Ruedisser, Maximilian & Franck, Egon, 2020. "Separating psychological momentum from strategic momentum: Evidence from men’s professional tennis," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Morgulev, Elia & Azar, Ofer H. & Bar-Eli, Michael, 2019. "Does a “comeback” create momentum in overtime? Analysis of NBA tied games," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    5. Philippe Meier & Maximilian Rüdisser & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2019. "The advantage of scoring just before the halftime break – pure myth? Quasi-experimental evidence from European football," Working Papers 382, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    6. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2023. "Gambling on Momentum in Contests," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-08, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    7. Haoming Liu & Jingfeng Lu & Alberto Salvo, 2023. "Willingness to fight on: Environmental quality in dynamic contests," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 54(2), pages 189-239, June.
    8. Arne Lauber & Christoph March & Marco Sahm, 2022. "Optimal and Fair Prizing in Sequential Round-Robin Tournaments: Experimental Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 9651, CESifo.
    9. Morgulev, Elia, 2023. "Streakiness is not a theory: On “momentums” (hot hands) and their underlying mechanisms," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    10. Elia Morgulev & Alisa Voslinsky & Ofer H. Azar & Michael Bar-Eli, 2020. "Biased perceptions about momentum: Do comeback teams have higher chances to win in basketball," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 15(4), pages 545-560, July.
    11. Philippe Meier & Maximilian Rüdisser & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2019. "Investigating the conditions for psychological momentum in the field: Evidence from men’s professional tennis," Working Papers 383, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    12. Craig A. Depken II & John M. Gandar & Dmitry A. Shapiro, 2022. "Set-level Strategic and Psychological Momentum in Best-of-three-set Professional Tennis Matches," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 598-623, June.
    13. repec:cup:judgdm:v:15:y:2020:i:4:p:545-560 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Philippe Meier & Raphael Flepp & Maximilian Ruedisser & Egon Franck, 2020. "The Advantage of Scoring Just Before the Half-Time Break—Pure Myth? Quasi-Experimental Evidence From European Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(5), pages 548-565, June.
    15. Lauber, Arne & March, Christoph & Sahm, Marco, 2023. "Optimal and fair prizing in sequential round-robin tournaments: Experimental evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 30-51.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic contest; Behavioural economics;

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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