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Fair representation in primaries: Heterogeneity and the New Hampshire effect

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Barbieri

    (Economics, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA)

  • Marco Serena

    (Economics, CUNEF Univesidad, Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

In sequential primaries, fair representation of the electorate may be undermined by the New Hampshire effect. Simultaneous primaries address fair representation, as there is no New Hampshire effect, but may increase expenditures. We analyze these issues by studying heterogeneity in sequential and simultaneous contests. The nature of heterogeneity is crucial. If a player is stronger in every battle, then expenditures in sequential contests are smaller than in simultaneous ones, in line with the existing literature, and the stronger player is more likely to win in sequential than simultaneous contests. If players’ advantages alternate across battles, for sufficiently large advantages, expenditures in sequential contests are greater than in simultaneous ones, and the player who has the advantage later in sequential contests is more likely to win: dynamics affect representation. We interpret our results in light of the candidates’ advantages due to the different demographic composition of states and discuss novel testable implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Barbieri & Marco Serena, 2025. "Fair representation in primaries: Heterogeneity and the New Hampshire effect," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 37(4), pages 290-318, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:37:y:2025:i:4:p:290-318
    DOI: 10.1177/09516298251333765
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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