IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v148y2018icp301-314.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decision-making on the hot seat and the short list: Evidence from college football fourth down decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Owens, Mark F.
  • Roach, Michael A.

Abstract

This study examines how career considerations influence risky decisions in the labor market for college football head coaches. We use historical data to predict, based on information available prior to the beginning of a given season, whether a coach will be fired or promoted after that season. Indices created from these models are used, along with other relevant data, to analyze the risky decision to attempt a fourth down conversion. We find that decision-making is sensitive to perceived job stability. Coaches who are more likely to be fired become more conservative, attempting fewer fourth down conversions. Conversely, coaches who are more likely to be promoted undertake more risk by attempting to convert more fourth downs. The result is that coaches with less job security are more likely to make decisions that are sub-optimal from the perspective of win-maximization.

Suggested Citation

  • Owens, Mark F. & Roach, Michael A., 2018. "Decision-making on the hot seat and the short list: Evidence from college football fourth down decisions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 301-314.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:148:y:2018:i:c:p:301-314
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2018.02.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268118300544
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2018.02.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judith Chevalier & Glenn Ellison, 1999. "Career Concerns of Mutual Fund Managers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 389-432.
    2. Murphy, Robert G. & Trandel, Gregory A., 1994. "The relation between a university's football record and the size of its applicant pool," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 265-270, September.
    3. McCormick, Robert E & Tensley, Maurice, 1987. "Athletics versus Academics? Evidence from SAT Scores," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1103-1116, October.
    4. Lawrence Hadley & Marc Poitras & John Ruggiero & Scott Knowles, 2000. "Performance evaluation of National Football League teams," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 63-70.
    5. Marius Popescu & Zhaojin Xu, 2014. "Does Reputation Contribute To Institutional Herding?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 295-322, September.
    6. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 88-97, January.
    8. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    9. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    10. Roberto Pedace & Janet Kiholm Smith, 2013. "Loss Aversion And Managerial Decisions: Evidence From Major League Baseball," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 1475-1488, April.
    11. David Romer, 2006. "Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(2), pages 340-365, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Allgrunn & Christopher Douglas & Sebastian Wai, 2024. "Optimal Timeout Choices in Clutch Situations in the NBA," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 217-230, February.
    2. Lefgren, Lars J. & Platt, Brennan & Price, Joseph & Higbee, Samuel, 2019. "Outcome based accountability: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 121-137.
    3. Michael A. Roach & Mark F. Owens, 2024. "Updating Beliefs Based on Observed Performance: Evidence From NFL Head Coaches," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 369-387, April.
    4. Michael A. Roach, 2022. "Career concerns and personnel investment in the Major League Baseball player draft," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 413-426, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Peiwen & Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Yan, Yuanyun, 2023. "Do peer effects matter in bank risk? Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Rick Harbaugh, 2005. "Prospect Theory or Skill Signaling?," Working Papers 2005-06, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    3. Lefgren, Lars J. & Platt, Brennan & Price, Joseph & Higbee, Samuel, 2019. "Outcome based accountability: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 121-137.
    4. Beggs, William & DeVault, Luke, 2022. "Mutual fund (sub)advisor connections and crowds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 231-252.
    5. Marius Popescu & Zhaojin Xu, 2018. "Mutual fund herding and reputational concerns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 550-565, July.
    6. Christiane Goodfellow & Dirk Schiereck & Steffen Wippler, 2013. "Are behavioural finance equity funds a superior investment? A note on fund performance and market efficiency," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(2), pages 111-119, April.
    7. Tom Coupé & Valérie Smeets & Frédéric Warzynski, 2006. "Incentives, Sorting and Productivity along the Career: Evidence from a Sample of Top Economists," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 137-167, April.
    8. Shaikh, Salman, 2013. "Investment Decisions by Analysts: A Case Study of KSE," MPRA Paper 53802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Baron, Opher & Callen, Jeffrey L. & Segal, Dan, 2023. "Does the bullwhip matter economically? A cross-sectional firm-level analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    10. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Stuart Gabriel, 2016. "Are The Disabled Less Loss Averse? Evidence From A Natural Policy Experiment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(2), pages 1291-1318, April.
    11. Craig Pirrong, 1996. "Market liquidity and depth on computerized and open outcry trading systems: A comparison of DTB and LIFFE bund contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 519-543, August.
    12. Embrey, Matthew & Seel, Christian & Philipp Reiss, J., 2024. "Gambling in risk-taking contests: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 570-585.
    13. Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon & Andrea Prat, 2018. "Transparency and Deliberation Within the FOMC: A Computational Linguistics Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 801-870.
    14. Leković Milјan, 2020. "Cognitive Biases as an Integral Part of Behavioral Finance," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 58(1), pages 75-96, March.
    15. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & JASIAK, Joanna, 1998. "Finite-Sample Inference Methods for Simultaneous Equations and Models with Unobserved and Generated Regressors," Cahiers de recherche 9812, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    16. Witte, Björn-Christopher, 2012. "Fund managers - Why the best might be the worst: On the evolutionary vigor of risk-seeking behavior," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-20, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Englmaier, Florian & Filipi, Ales & Singh, Ravi, 2010. "Incentives, reputation and the allocation of authority," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 413-427, November.
    18. Alfred A. Haug & Syed Abul Basher, 2019. "Exchange rates of oil exporting countries and global oil price shocks: a nonlinear smooth-transition approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(48), pages 5282-5296, October.
    19. Guedes, Jose & Parayre, Roch, 1997. "Managerial reputation and divisional sell-offs: A model and empirical test," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(8), pages 1085-1106, August.
    20. Tao Chen & Robert K. Larson & Han Mo, 2024. "Investor Herding and Price Informativeness in Global Markets: Evidence from Earnings Announcements," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 92-110, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loss aversion; Football; Firing; Promotion; Herding; Fourth down;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:148:y:2018:i:c:p:301-314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.