IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v114y2006i2p340-365.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football

Author

Listed:
  • David Romer

Abstract

This paper examines a single, narrow decision—the choice on fourth down in the National Football League between kicking and trying for a first down—as a case study of the standard view that competition in the goods, capital, and labor markets leads firms to make maximizing choices. Play-by-play data and dynamic programming are used to estimate the average payoffs to kicking and trying for a first down under different circumstances. Examination of actual decisions shows systematic, clear-cut, and overwhelmingly statistically significant departures from the decisions that would maximize teams' chances of winning. Possible reasons for the departures are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • David Romer, 2006. "Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(2), pages 340-365, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:114:y:2006:i:2:p:340-365
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/501171
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaassen F. J G M & Magnus J. R., 2001. "Are Points in Tennis Independent and Identically Distributed? Evidence From a Dynamic Binary Panel Data Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 500-509, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Csaba, László, 2008. "Módszertan és relevancia a közgazdaságtanban. A mai közgazdaságtan és a társtudományok
      [Methodology and relevancy in economics. Today s economics and associated sciences]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 285-307.
    2. Dietl Helmut M & Duschl Tobias & Lang Markus, 2011. "Executive Pay Regulation: What Regulators, Shareholders, and Managers Can Learn from Major Sports Leagues," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-32, August.
    3. repec:eee:jeborg:v:136:y:2017:i:c:p:107-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Theodore L. Turocy, 2012. "An inspection game model of the stolen base in baseball: A theory of theft," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 032, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    5. Pasteur R. Drew & Cunningham-Rhoads Kyle, 2014. "An expectation-based metric for NFL field goal kickers," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 49-66, January.
    6. Raul Caruso & Marco Di Domizio, 2015. "La Serie A In Televisione E Allo Stadio: Presentazione Del Dataset Audiball 1.0," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 11(1), pages 161-185, maggio.
    7. González-Díaz, Julio & Palacios-Huerta, Ignacio, 2016. "Cognitive performance in competitive environments: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 40-52.
    8. Howley, Peter, 2015. "The Happy Farmer: The Effect Of Non-Pecuniary Benefits On Farmers’ Behavior," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204289, Agricultural Economics Society.
    9. Adams, Christopher P., 2007. "Estimating demand from eBay prices," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1213-1232, December.
    10. Urschel John D & Zhuang Jun, 2011. "Are NFL Coaches Risk and Loss Averse? Evidence from Their Use of Kickoff Strategies," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, July.
    11. Niven Winchester & Raymond T. Stefani, 2009. "An innovative approach to National Football League standings using optimal bonus points," Working Papers 0905, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2009.
    12. Kotchen, Matthew J. & Potoski, Matthew, 2014. "Conflicts of interest distort public evaluations: Evidence from NCAA football coaches," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PA), pages 51-63.
    13. Sebastian Bervoets & Bruno Decreuse & Mathieu Faure, 2014. "A Renewed Analysis of Cheating in Contests: Theory and Evidence from Recovery Doping," AMSE Working Papers 1441, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised Jun 2015.
    14. Fort, Rodney & Maxcy, Joel & Diehl, Mark, 2016. "Uncertainty by regulation: Rottenberg׳s invariance principle," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 454-467.
    15. Emara, Noha & Owens, David & Smith, John & Wilmer, Lisa, 2017. "Serial correlation in National Football League play calling and its effects on outcomes," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 125-132.
    16. Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio & Stefan Szymanski, 2006. "Goal! Profit maximization and win maximization in football leagues," Working Papers 0621, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    17. Contini, Bruno & Morini, Matteo, 2007. "Testing Bounded Rationality against Full Rationality in Job Changing Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 3148, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    18. Di Domizio Marco, 2008. "Win the best, win the largest or win the richest. Some empirical evidence from Italian championships," wp.comunite 0047, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    19. Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page, 2014. "Does success breed success? A quasi-experiment on strategic momentum in dynamic contests," QuBE Working Papers 028, QUT Business School.
    20. Kurt Rotthoff, 2012. "Bankruptcy behavior in the NFL: does the overtime structure change the strategy of the game?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(3), pages 662-674, July.
    21. Ricardo Manuel Santos, 2014. "Optimal Soccer Strategies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 183-200, January.
    22. Fry Michael J. & Shukairy F. Alan, 2012. "Searching for Momentum in the NFL," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, March.
    23. repec:eee:corfin:v:44:y:2017:i:c:p:506-523 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Jorge Tovar, 2014. "Gasping for Air: Soccer players’ performance at high-altitude," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 011949, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    25. Klaassen, Franc J.G.M. & Magnus, Jan R., 2009. "The efficiency of top agents: An analysis through service strategy in tennis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 72-85, January.

    More about this item

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
    1. Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football (JPE 2006) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:114:y:2006:i:2:p:340-365. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Journals Division). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.