The exchange rate as nominal anchor: A test for Ukraine
Transition economies, and especially those of the former Soviet Union, have used fixed exchange-rate policy as a nominal anchor for interest rates and inflation during recent decades. In this paper I demonstrate that the rigorous application of this policy in Ukraine over the period 1999–2005 did not in fact eliminate significant deviations of Ukrainian interbank interest rates from those on the London interbank market. Estimation using weekly data over the period 1999–2005 illustrates that the government’s “nominal anchor” policy vis à vis the US dollar was effective at eliminating the risk of currency depreciation. However, other risks related to convertibility and liquidity were either not addressed or exacerbated, and thus deviations from uncovered interest parity continued through the period. This has a clear policy implication: monetary and financial-sector policy should be coordinated to eliminate convertibility and liquidity risk as well as the risk of currency depreciation.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Black, Stanley W. & Salemi, Michael K., 1988. "FIML estimation of the dollar-deutschemark risk premium in a portfolio model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 205-224, November.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007.
"Monetary Policy Strategy,"
MIT Press Books,
The MIT Press,
edition 1, volume 1, number 0262134829, June.
- van Aarle, Bas & de Jong, Eelke & Sosoian, Robert, 2006. "Exchange rate management in Ukraine: Is there a case for more flexibility?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 282-305, October.
- Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000.
"The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
- Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 1999. "The Forward Premium Puzzle: Different Tales from Developed and Emerging Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2169, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005.
"Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
- Franziska Ohnsorge & Nienke Oomes, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Dollarized Economies: The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 05/144, International Monetary Fund.
- Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003.
"A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Smith, Tom & Whaley, Robert E., 2004. "Modeling the bid/ask spread: measuring the inventory-holding premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 97-141, April.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Exchange-Rate Anchors, Credibility, and Inertia: A Tale of Two Crises, Chile and Mexico," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 176-80, May.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001.
"Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 241-270, October.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso Problem" Explanations for Term Structure Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 6147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso problem" explanations for term structure anomalies," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Krasker, William S., 1980. "The `peso problem' in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 269-276, April.
- Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989.
"Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers 8874, University of California at Berkeley.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2000.
"Expectations Hypotheses Tests,"
NBER Working Papers
7609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lewis, Karen K, 1991. "Was There a "Peso Problem" in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates: 1979-1982?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(1), pages 159-73, February.
- Bilan, Olena, 2005. "In search of the liquidity effect in Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 500-516, September.
- Starr, Martha A., 2005. "Does money matter in the CIS? Effects of monetary policy on output and prices," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-461, September.
- Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 2005. "Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: A systematic exploitation of idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 951-969, July.
- Bautista, Carlos C., 2006. "The exchange rate-interest differential relationship in six East Asian countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 137-142, July.
- Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
- Ahn, Dong-Hyun, 2004. "Common Factors and Local Factors: Implications for Term Structures and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(01), pages 69-102, March.
- Haque, Nadeem U. & Montiel, Peter, 1991. "Capital mobility in developing countries: Some empirical tests," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(10), pages 1391-1398, October.
- Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
- Corden, W Max, 1993. "Exchange Rate Policies for Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 198-207, January.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Christoph Duenwald & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Andrea Schaechter, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies: The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 05/128, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:40:y:2012:i:3:p:438-456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.