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Financial contagion in the laboratory: The cross-market rebalancing channel

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  • Cipriani, Marco
  • Gardenal, Gloria
  • Guarino, Antonio

Abstract

We present the results of the first experimental study of financial markets contagion. We develop a model of financial contagion amenable to be tested in the laboratory. In the model, contagion happens because of cross-market rebalancing, a channel for transmission of shocks across markets first studied by Kodres and Pritsker (2002). Theory predicts that, because of portfolio rebalancing, a negative shock in one market transmits itself to the others, as investors adjust their portfolio allocations. The theory is supported by the experimental results. The price observed in the laboratory is close to that predicted by theory, and strong contagion effects are observed. The results are robust across different market structures. Moreover, as theory predicts, lower asymmetric information in a (“developed”) financial market increases the contagion effects in (“emerging”) markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Cipriani, Marco & Gardenal, Gloria & Guarino, Antonio, 2013. "Financial contagion in the laboratory: The cross-market rebalancing channel," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4310-4326.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4310-4326
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.06.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hubert J. Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez-Lara & Alfonso Rosa-Garcia, 2022. "Experimental bank runs," Chapters, in: Sascha Füllbrunn & Ernan Haruvy (ed.), Handbook of Experimental Finance, chapter 25, pages 347-361, Edward Elgar Publishing.
      • Hubert J. Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez-Lara & Alfonso Rosa-Garcia, 2021. "Experimental Bank Runs," ThE Papers 21/03, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    2. Pragidis, I.C. & Aielli, G.P. & Chionis, D. & Schizas, P., 2015. "Contagion effects during financial crisis: Evidence from the Greek sovereign bonds market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 127-138.
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    4. Xu, Xin & Huang, Shupei & Lucey, Brian M. & An, Haizhong, 2023. "The impacts of climate policy uncertainty on stock markets: Comparison between China and the US," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
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    6. Bayona, Anna & Peia, Oana, 2022. "Financial contagion and the wealth effect: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1184-1202.
    7. Karim, Sitara & Shafiullah, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2024. "When one domino falls, others follow: A machine learning analysis of extreme risk spillovers in developed stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Tran, Ly Thi Hai & Hoang, Thao Thi Phuong & Tran, Hoa Xuan, 2018. "Stock liquidity and ownership structure during and after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis: Empirical evidence from an emerging market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 114-133.
    9. Deng, Chao & Su, Xiaojian & Wang, Gangjin & Peng, Cheng, 2022. "The existence of flight-to-quality under extreme conditions: Evidence from a nonlinear perspective in Chinese stocks and bonds' sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Olfa El Aoun, 2026. "Market-specific connectedness behaviors across quantiles and frequencies connectedness patterns among G7 markets, commodities, bitcoin, and interest rate spread," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-45, March.
    11. Isabel Trevino, 2020. "Informational Channels of Financial Contagion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 297-335, January.
    12. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Credit risk interdependence in global financial markets: Evidence from three regions using multiple and partial wavelet approaches," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & James Morley, 2022. "Debt and financial market contagion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1599-1648, April.
    14. Wang, Li & Zhou, Hanyu & Huang, Zeyu & Wang, Yanan, 2025. "Utilizing LASSO-VAR and frequency decomposition to analyze the climate risk contagion network: Implementing decarbonization strategies in finance," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    15. Noussair, Charles N. & Popescu, Andreea Victoria, 2021. "Comovement and return predictability in asset markets: An experiment with two Lucas trees," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 671-687.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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