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Informational contagion in the laboratory

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Cipriani

    (Federal Reserve of New York)

  • Antonio Guarino

    (University College London)

  • Giovanni Guazzarotti

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Federico Tagliati

    (University College London)

  • Sven Fischer

    (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods)

Abstract

We study the informational channel of financial contagion under laboratory conditions. In our experiment, two markets with correlated fundamentals open sequentially and in both of them subjects receive private information. Subjects in the market opening second also observe the history of trades and prices in the first market. We find that although in both markets private information is only imperfectly aggregated, subjects are able to make correct inferences based on the public information coming from the market that opens first. We thus observe financial contagion under laboratory conditions: the correlation between asset prices is very close to that predicted by the theory. Moreover, as the theory predicts, there is no contagion when asset fundamentals are independent: in other words, subjects only react to the history of prices and trades in the first market when it is rational to do so because they convey information.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino & Giovanni Guazzarotti & Federico Tagliati & Sven Fischer, 2016. "Informational contagion in the laboratory," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1063, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1063_16
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

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    3. Debarsy, Nicolas & Dossougoin, Cyrille & Ertur, Cem & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels: A spatial econometrics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 21-45.
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    5. Concetta Rondinelli & Roberta Zizza, 2020. "Spend today or spend tomorrow? The role of inflation expectations in consumer behaviour," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1276, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2022. "The impact of VIX on China’s financial market: A new perspective based on high-dimensional and time-varying methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. König-Kersting, Christian & Trautmann, Stefan T. & Vlahu, Razvan, 2022. "Bank instability: Interbank linkages and the role of disclosure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    informational contagion; laboratory experiment;

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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