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Informational contagion in the laboratory

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Cipriani
  • Sven Fischer
  • Antonio Guarino
  • Giovanni Guazzarotti
  • Federico Tagliati

Abstract

We study the informational channel of financial contagion in the laboratory. In our experiment, two markets with correlated fundamentals open sequentially. In both markets, subjects receive private information. Subjects in the market opening second also observe the history of trades and prices in the first market. We find that although in both markets private information is only imperfectly aggregated, subjects are able to make correct inferences based on the public information coming from the market that opens first. As a result, we observe financial contagion in the laboratory: Indeed, the correlation between asset prices is very close to that predicted by the theory. Finally, as theory predicts, there is no contagion when asset fundamentals are independent: That is, subjects only react to the history of prices and trades in the first market when it is rational to do so because they convey information.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Cipriani & Sven Fischer & Antonio Guarino & Giovanni Guazzarotti & Federico Tagliati, 2015. "Informational contagion in the laboratory," Staff Reports 715, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:715
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Concetta Rondinelli & Roberta Zizza, 2020. "Spend today or spend tomorrow? The role of inflation expectations in consumer behaviour," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1276, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Christian König-Kersting & Stefan T. Trautmann & Razvan Vlahu, 2020. "Bank instability: Interbank linkages and the role of disclosure," DNB Working Papers 665, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    information contagion; laboratory experiment;

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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