IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Will tighter futures price limits decrease hedge effectiveness?

  • Dark, Jonathan
Registered author(s):

    The events triggered by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) have led to calls for the regulation of financial markets. Given that regulation may involve opportunity costs, this paper examines whether tighter futures price limits can reduce the effectiveness of a futures hedge. We propose a new model that uncovers the underlying spot-futures dynamics when futures prices are subject to limits. We use the model to determine the maximum number of limit days that can occur before minimum variance hedging outcomes are adversely affected. Application of this model to the US soybean and corn markets reveals that existing limits do not reduce hedge effectiveness. If the frequency of limit days increases from current levels of 1% to approximately 3–4%, conventional hedging approaches will experience economically and statistically significant increases in portfolio variance. These results are important for hedgers, clearing houses and regulators in light of the recent calls for derivatives regulation.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426611002408
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 10 ()
    Pages: 2717-2728

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:10:p:2717-2728
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Baillie, Richard T. & Morana, Claudio, 2009. "Modelling long memory and structural breaks in conditional variances: An adaptive FIGARCH approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1577-1592, August.
    2. Chen, Yea-Mow, 1993. "Price limits and stock market volatility in Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 139-153, May.
    3. Robert A. Eisenbeis, 2009. "What We Have Learned and Not Learned from the Current Crisis about Financial Reform," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(4), pages 457-469.
    4. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J, 1992. " Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 2015-34, December.
    6. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-313, September.
    7. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    8. Kodres, Laura E, 1993. "Tests of Unbiasedness in the Foreign Exchange Futures Markets: An Examination of Price Limits and Conditional Heteroscedasticity," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 464-90, July.
    9. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-70, March.
    10. Christopher K. Ma & Ramesh P. Rao & R. Stephen Sears, 1989. "Limit moves and price resolution: The case of the treasury bond futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 321-335, 08.
    11. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Dark, Jonathan, 2007. "Basis Convergence and Long Memory in Volatility When Dynamic Hedging with Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 1021-1040, December.
    13. Tse, Y. K., 2000. "A test for constant correlations in a multivariate GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 107-127, September.
    14. Ma, C.K. & Rao, R.P. & Sears, R.S., 1989. "Volatility, Price Resolution, And The Effectiveness Of Price Limits," Papers t7, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    15. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J & Seguin, Paul J, 1994. " Volume, Volatility, and New York Stock Exchange Trading Halts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 183-214, March.
    16. Hall, Anthony D & Kofman, Paul, 2001. "Regulatory Tools and Price Changes in Futures Markets," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 520-40, December.
    17. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Lee, Cheng-few & Shrestha, Keshab, 2003. "Futures hedge ratios: a review," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 433-465.
    18. Brennan, Michael J., 1986. "A theory of price limits in futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-233, June.
    19. Lien, Donald & Tse, Y K, 2002. " Some Recent Developments in Futures Hedging," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 357-96, July.
    20. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
    21. Westerhoff, Frank, 2003. "Speculative markets and the effectiveness of price limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-508, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:10:p:2717-2728. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.