IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v33y2017i2p433-441.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Structural forecasts for marketing data

Author

Listed:
  • Allenby, Greg M.

Abstract

Marketing applications often require disaggregate forecasts of demand that pertain to subsets of individuals who are targeted for action. Examples include targeted price promotions that are made available through on-site couponing and forecasts of market segments for which new products have been developed. One challenge in the production of disaggregate forecasts of demand, and of consumer responses to marketing actions, relates to the limited amount of data that is available at the individual level. This paper discusses approaches to the improvement of marketing forecasts through the use of both parsimonious structural models of demand and random-effect models that pool data statistically across individual consumers.

Suggested Citation

  • Allenby, Greg M., 2017. "Structural forecasts for marketing data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 433-441.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:2:p:433-441
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.09.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207016301029
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.09.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rossi P. E & Gilula Z. & Allenby G. M, 2001. "Overcoming Scale Usage Heterogeneity: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 20-31, March.
    2. Joachim Büschken & Thomas Otter & Greg M. Allenby, 2013. "The Dimensionality of Customer Satisfaction Survey Responses and Implications for Driver Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(4), pages 533-553, July.
    3. Greg M. Allenby & Peter E. Rossi, 1991. "Quality Perceptions and Asymmetric Switching Between Brands," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 185-204.
    4. Paap, Richard & van Nierop, Erjen & van Heerde, Harald J. & Wedel, Michel & Franses, Philip Hans & Alsem, Karel Jan, 2005. "Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-71.
    5. Daniel McFadden, 2001. "Economic Choices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 351-378, June.
    6. Rajeev Kohli & Kamel Jedidi, 2007. "Representation and Inference of Lexicographic Preference Models and Their Variants," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(3), pages 380-399, 05-06.
    7. Robert C. Blattberg & Kenneth J. Wisniewski, 1989. "Price-Induced Patterns of Competition," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 291-309.
    8. Fok, Dennis & van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans, 2005. "Forecasting aggregates using panels of nonlinear time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 785-794.
    9. Chandukala, Sandeep R. & Kim, Jaehwan & Otter, Thomas & Rossi, Peter E. & Allenby, Greg M., 2008. "Choice Models in Marketing: Economic Assumptions, Challenges and Trends," Foundations and Trends(R) in Marketing, now publishers, vol. 2(2), pages 97-184, September.
    10. Timothy J. Gilbride & Greg M. Allenby, 2004. "A Choice Model with Conjunctive, Disjunctive, and Compensatory Screening Rules," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 391-406, October.
    11. Joachim Büschken & Greg M. Allenby, 2016. "Sentence-Based Text Analysis for Customer Reviews," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(6), pages 953-975, November.
    12. Sanghak Lee & Greg M. Allenby, 2014. "Modeling Indivisible Demand," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 364-381, May.
    13. Takuya Satomura & Jaehwan Kim & Greg M. Allenby, 2011. "Multiple-Constraint Choice Models with Corner and Interior Solutions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 481-490, 05-06.
    14. Greg Allenby & Geraldine Fennell & Joel Huber & Thomas Eagle & Tim Gilbride & Dan Horsky & Jaehwan Kim & Peter Lenk & Rich Johnson & Elie Ofek & Bryan Orme & Thomas Otter & Joan Walker, 2005. "Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 197-208, December.
    15. Allenby, Greg M. & Rossi, Peter E., 1998. "Marketing models of consumer heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 57-78, November.
    16. Geraldine Fennell & Greg Allenby & Sha Yang & Yancy Edwards, 2003. "The Effectiveness of Demographic and Psychographic Variables for Explaining Brand and Product Category Use," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 223-244, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nino Hardt & Alex Varbanov & Greg M. Allenby, 2016. "Monetizing Ratings Data for Product Research," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(5), pages 713-726, September.
    2. James Agarwal & Wayne DeSarbo & Naresh K. Malhotra & Vithala Rao, 2015. "An Interdisciplinary Review of Research in Conjoint Analysis: Recent Developments and Directions for Future Research," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 2(1), pages 19-40, March.
    3. Lee, Sanghak & Kim, Hyowon & Kim, Jaehwan & Allenby, Greg M., 2018. "A choice model for mixed decision variables," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 82-96.
    4. Jean-Pierre H. Dubé, 2018. "Microeconometric Models of Consumer Demand," NBER Working Papers 25215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sanghak Lee & Greg M. Allenby, 2014. "Modeling Indivisible Demand," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 364-381, May.
    6. Putsis, William Jr. & Dhar, Ravi, 2001. "An empirical analysis of the determinants of category expenditure," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 277-291, June.
    7. Dora Gicheva & Justine Hastings & Sofia Villas-Boas, 2007. "Revisiting the Income Effect: Gasoline Prices and Grocery Purchases," NBER Working Papers 13614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lee, Sanghak & Thomas, Suman Ann & Allenby, Greg M., 2020. "An economic analysis of demand of the very poor," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 544-556.
    9. Aydın Alptekinoğlu & John H. Semple, 2016. "The Exponomial Choice Model: A New Alternative for Assortment and Price Optimization," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(1), pages 79-93, February.
    10. Song Lin & Juanjuan Zhang & John R. Hauser, 2015. "Learning from Experience, Simply," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 1-19, January.
    11. Pantelis P. Analytis & Amit Kothiyal & Konstantinos Katsikopoulos, 2014. "Multi-attribute utility models as cognitive search engines," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 9(5), pages 403-419, September.
    12. Kumar, V. & Pereira, Arun, 1997. "Assessing the Competitive Impact of Type, Timing, Frequency, and Magnitude of Retail Promotions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-13, September.
    13. Hauser, John R., 2014. "Consideration-set heuristics," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(8), pages 1688-1699.
    14. Heiman, Amir & Lowengart, Oded, 2011. "The effects of information about health hazards in food on consumers' choice process," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 140-147, May.
    15. Marc R. Dotson & Joachim Büschken & Greg M. Allenby, 2020. "Explaining Preference Heterogeneity with Mixed Membership Modeling," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(2), pages 407-426, March.
    16. repec:cup:judgdm:v:9:y:2014:i:5:p:403-419 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Koen Pauwels & Shuba Srinivasan & Philip Hans Franses, 2007. "When Do Price Thresholds Matter in Retail Categories?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(1), pages 83-100, 01-02.
    18. Hu, Wuyang, 2007. "A Choice Model with Systematic Structures in Decision Weights," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1-14, December.
    19. Agarwal, Manoj K., 2002. "Asymmetric price effects in the telecommunications services markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 671-677, August.
    20. Kim, Chung Koo, 1996. "The interaction between price and long-run variables in a multinational brand market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-14, September.
    21. Assele, Samson Yaekob & Meulders, Michel & Vandebroek, Martina, 2022. "The value of consideration data in a discrete choice experiment," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:2:p:433-441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.