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Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for capital allocation under copula-dependent risk models

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  • Targino, Rodrigo S.
  • Peters, Gareth W.
  • Shevchenko, Pavel V.

Abstract

In this paper we assume a multivariate risk model has been developed for a portfolio and its capital derived as a homogeneous risk measure. The Euler (or gradient) principle, then, states that the capital to be allocated to each component of the portfolio has to be calculated as an expectation conditional to a rare event, which can be challenging to evaluate in practice. We exploit the copula-dependence within the portfolio risks to design a Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers based estimate to the marginal conditional expectations involved in the problem, showing its efficiency through a series of computational examples.

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  • Targino, Rodrigo S. & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2015. "Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for capital allocation under copula-dependent risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 206-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:61:y:2015:i:c:p:206-226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2015.01.007
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    1. Yuhao Liu & Petar M. Djurić & Young Shin Kim & Svetlozar T. Rachev & James Glimm, 2021. "Systemic Risk Modeling with Lévy Copulas," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Tong Pu & Yifei Zhang & Yiying Zhang, 2024. "On Joint Marginal Expected Shortfall and Associated Contribution Risk Measures," Papers 2405.07549, arXiv.org.
    3. Ignatieva, Katja & Landsman, Zinoviy, 2019. "Conditional tail risk measures for the skewed generalised hyperbolic family," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 98-114.
    4. Gareth W. Peters & Efstathios Panayi & Francois Septier, 2015. "SMC-ABC methods for the estimation of stochastic simulation models of the limit order book," Papers 1504.05806, arXiv.org.
    5. Jaume Belles-Sampera & Montserrat Guillen & Miguel Santolino, 2023. "Haircut Capital Allocation as the Solution of a Quadratic Optimisation Problem," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-17, September.
    6. Gareth W. Peters & Rodrigo S. Targino & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2017. "Bayesian Modelling, Monte Carlo Sampling and Capital Allocation of Insurance Risks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-51, September.
    7. Takaaki Koike & Marius Hofert, 2019. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Systemic Risk Allocations," Papers 1909.11794, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    8. Paulusch, Joachim & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2022. "Sensitivity-implied tail-correlation matrices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Man Chung Fung & Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2016. "A unified approach to mortality modelling using state-space framework: characterisation, identification, estimation and forecasting," Papers 1605.09484, arXiv.org.
    10. Koike, Takaaki & Saporito, Yuri & Targino, Rodrigo, 2022. "Avoiding zero probability events when computing Value at Risk contributions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 173-192.
    11. Sunoh Kim & Jin Hur, 2020. "Probabilistic Approaches to the Security Analysis of Smart Grid with High Wind Penetration: The Case of Jeju Island’s Power Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-13, November.
    12. Ji, Liuyan & Tan, Ken Seng & Yang, Fan, 2021. "Tail dependence and heavy tailedness in extreme risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 282-293.
    13. Huang, Zhenzhen & Kwok, Yue Kuen & Xu, Ziqing, 2024. "Efficient algorithms for calculating risk measures and risk contributions in copula credit risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 132-150.
    14. Takaaki Koike & Marius Hofert, 2020. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Systemic Risk Allocations," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-33, January.
    15. Mélina Mailhot & Mhamed Mesfioui, 2016. "Multivariate TVaR-Based Risk Decomposition for Vector-Valued Portfolios," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-16, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk management; Capital allocation; Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC); Copula models; Euler allocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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