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Risk-informed decision support for assessing the costs and benefits of counter-terrorism protective measures for infrastructure

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  • Stewart, Mark G.

Abstract

The paper describes risk-informed decision support for assessing the costs and benefits of counter-terrorism (CT) protective measures for infrastructure. Such a decision support framework needs to consider threat scenarios and probabilities, value of human life, physical (direct) damage, indirect damage, risk reduction and protective measure costs. Probabilistic terrorism risk assessments that quantify the costs and benefits are conducted for three items of infrastructure using representative cost and vulnerability data. The illustrative examples show under what combination of risk reduction, threat probability, and fatality and damage costs the CT protective measures would be cost-effective for United States building, bridge and aviation infrastructure. It was found that if indirect losses (such as business interruption, loss of GDP, etc.) are considered, then CT protective measures are cost-effective even if the terrorist threat probability is not high. Opportunity costs can be considerable, which makes CT protective measures less cost-effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Stewart, Mark G., 2010. "Risk-informed decision support for assessing the costs and benefits of counter-terrorism protective measures for infrastructure," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 29-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ijocip:v:3:y:2010:i:1:p:29-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcip.2009.09.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Skorupski, Jacek & Uchroński, Piotr, 2017. "A fuzzy model for evaluating metal detection equipment at airport security screening checkpoints," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 39-48.
    2. Skorupski, Jacek & Uchroński, Piotr, 2018. "Evaluation of the effectiveness of an airport passenger and baggage security screening system," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 53-64.
    3. Ramezani, Abouzar & Malek, MohammadReza & Sahami, Habib & Hosnavi, Reza, 2018. "Developing a spatial methodology to reduce the vulnerability of critical infrastructures against intelligent air-based threats," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 126-138.
    4. Nunes-Vaz, Rick & Lord, Steven, 2014. "Designing physical security for complex infrastructures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 178-192.
    5. Abigail Luxton & Marin Marinov, 2020. "Terrorist Threat Mitigation Strategies for the Railways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, April.
    6. Jiménez, Alfredo & Lupton, Nathaniel C., 2021. "Terrorism hazard and infrastructure projects: The moderating role of home experience and institutions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 721-730.
    7. Samrat Chatterjee & Stephen C. Hora & Heather Rosoff, 2015. "Portfolio Analysis of Layered Security Measures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 459-475, March.
    8. Mark G. Stewart & John Mueller, 2013. "Terrorism Risks and Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Aviation Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(5), pages 893-908, May.
    9. Gerstenfeld, Arthur & Berger, Paul D., 2011. "A decision-analysis approach for optimal airport security," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 14-21.

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