IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v46y2022ipas1544612321003573.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ethereum synchronicity, upside volatility and Bitcoin crash risk

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, Yu
  • Luan, Zhiqian

Abstract

The fundamental value of Bitcoin is difficult to evaluate because there is no underlying company or cashflow. Extant literature documented various macro-economic factors and technical factors to price Bitcoin. However, for a highly speculative instrument, investors’ behavior plays an important role in asset pricing. This paper incorporates Bitcoin Ethereum synchronicity conditional on upside volatility of Bitcoin as a proxy for the fear of high Bitcoin prices. Empirical results reveal that when upside volatility is high, Ethereum synchronicity exerts a significant positive influence on Bitcoin crash risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Yu & Luan, Zhiqian, 2022. "Ethereum synchronicity, upside volatility and Bitcoin crash risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:46:y:2022:i:pa:s1544612321003573
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102352
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612321003573
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102352?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
    2. Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Roubaud, David, 2021. "Quantile connectedness in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Lee, Wayne Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Indro, Daniel C., 2002. "Stock market volatility, excess returns, and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2277-2299.
    4. Driessen, Joost & Maenhout, Pascal, 2013. "The world price of jump and volatility risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 518-536.
    5. Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Ballis, Antonis & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies’ Price Crash Risk and Crisis Sentiment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    6. Jin, Li & Myers, Stewart C., 2006. "R2 around the world: New theory and new tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 257-292, February.
    7. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2022. "Spillovers in Higher-Order Moments of Crude Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 398-406.
    8. Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha, 2019. "From financial markets to Bitcoin markets: A fresh look at the contagion effect," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 93-97.
    9. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can volume predict Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 74-81.
    10. Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Do Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies jump together?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 396-409.
    11. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron P. & Hernandez, Jose Arreola, 2019. "Co-movements between Bitcoin and Gold: A wavelet coherence analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    12. Aggarwal, Divya, 2019. "Do bitcoins follow a random walk model?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 15-22.
    13. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2019. "Information interdependence among energy, cryptocurrency and major commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1042-1055.
    14. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lucey, Brian, 2021. "Realised volatility connectedness among Bitcoin exchange markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    15. Corvino, Raffaele & Ruggiero, Francesco, 2021. "The relative pricing of sovereign credit risk after the Eurozone crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    16. Sang Hoon Kang & Ron Mciver & Jose Arreola Hernandez, 2019. "Co-movements between Bitcoin and Gold: A wavelet coherence analysis," Post-Print hal-02468160, HAL.
    17. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness and integration in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-272.
    18. Xiong, Jinwu & Liu, Qing & Zhao, Lei, 2020. "A new method to verify Bitcoin bubbles: Based on the production cost," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    19. Pyo, Sujin & Lee, Jaewook, 2020. "Do FOMC and macroeconomic announcements affect Bitcoin prices?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    20. Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2020. "Real-time prediction of Bitcoin bubble crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 548(C).
    21. Chaim, Pedro & Laurini, Márcio P., 2019. "Is Bitcoin a bubble?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 222-232.
    22. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Co-explosivity in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 178-183.
    23. Kalyvas, Antonios & Papakyriakou, Panayiotis & Sakkas, Athanasios & Urquhart, Andrew, 2020. "What drives Bitcoin’s price crash risk?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    24. Lepone, Andrew & Wen, Jun & Yang, Jin Young, 2018. "Message traffic restrictions and relative pricing efficiency: Evidence from index futures contracts and exchange-traded funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 366-375.
    25. Geuder, Julian & Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as financial bubbles: The case of Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    26. An, Heng & Zhang, Ting, 2013. "Stock price synchronicity, crash risk, and institutional investors," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 1-15.
    27. Conlon, Thomas & McGee, Richard J., 2020. "Betting on Bitcoin: Does gambling volume on the blockchain explain Bitcoin price changes?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    28. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Fry, John, 2015. "Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-36.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Koch, Sophia & Dimpfl, Thomas, 2023. "Attention and retail investor herding in cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Jinxin Cui & Aktham Maghyereh, 2022. "Time–frequency co-movement and risk connectedness among cryptocurrencies: new evidence from the higher-order moments before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, December.
    3. Wang, Jying-Nan & Vigne, Samuel A. & Liu, Hung-Chun & Hsu, Yuan-Teng, 2024. "Hacks and the price synchronicity of bitcoin and ether," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 294-299.
    4. Waqas Hanif & Hee-Un Ko & Linh Pham & Sang Hoon Kang, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness and network in the high moments of cryptocurrency, stock, and commodity markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-40, December.
    5. Zhang, Lei & Bouri, Elie & Chen, Yan, 2023. "Co-jump dynamicity in the cryptocurrency market: A network modelling perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    6. Cheng, Jiyang & Tiwari, Sunil & Khaled, Djebbouri & Mahendru, Mandeep & Shahzad, Umer, 2024. "Forecasting Bitcoin prices using artificial intelligence: Combination of ML, SARIMA, and Facebook Prophet models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    7. Wang, Jying-Nan & Liu, Hung-Chun & Hsu, Yuan-Teng, 2024. "A U-shaped relationship between the crypto fear-greed index and the price synchronicity of cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Herrera, Gabriel Paes & Constantino, Michel & Su, Jen-Je & Naranpanawa, Athula, 2022. "Renewable energy stocks forecast using Twitter investor sentiment and deep learning," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Can wavelets produce a clearer picture of weak-form market efficiency in Bitcoin?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 373-386, September.
    2. Fan Fang & Carmine Ventre & Michail Basios & Leslie Kanthan & David Martinez-Rego & Fan Wu & Lingbo Li, 2022. "Cryptocurrency trading: a comprehensive survey," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-59, December.
    3. Haffar, Adlane & Le Fur, Eric, 2021. "Structural vector error correction modelling of Bitcoin price," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 170-178.
    4. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    6. Ji Ho Kwon, 2021. "On the factors of Bitcoin’s value at risk," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, December.
    7. Haffar, Adlane & Le Fur, Éric, 2022. "Time-varying dependence of Bitcoin," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 211-220.
    8. Helder Miguel Correia Virtuoso Sebastião & Paulo José Osório Rupino Da Cunha & Pedro Manuel Cortesão Godinho, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Overview and future perspectives," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 305-342.
    9. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "How do Islamic equity markets respond to good and bad volatility of cryptocurrencies? The case of Bitcoin," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Eray Gemici & Muslum Polat & Remzi Gök & Muhammad Asif Khan & Mohammed Arshad Khan & Yunus Kilic, 2023. "Do Bubbles in the Bitcoin Market Impact Stock Markets? Evidence From 10 Major Stock Markets," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    11. Gradojevic, Nikola & Kukolj, Dragan & Adcock, Robert & Djakovic, Vladimir, 2023. "Forecasting Bitcoin with technical analysis: A not-so-random forest?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17.
    12. Constandina Koki & Stefanos Leonardos & Georgios Piliouras, 2019. "A Peek into the Unobservable: Hidden States and Bayesian Inference for the Bitcoin and Ether Price Series," Papers 1909.10957, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    13. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    14. Yao, Can-Zhong & Li, Hong-Yu, 2021. "A study on the bursting point of Bitcoin based on the BSADF and LPPLS methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    15. Hu, Yang & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Oxley, Les & Corbet, Shaen, 2021. "Does blockchain patent-development influence Bitcoin risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    17. Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2024. "Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 98-113.
    18. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2020. "Crude oil price and cryptocurrencies: Evidence of volatility connectedness and hedging strategy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    19. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
    20. Li, Dongxin & Hong, Yanran & Wang, Lu & Xu, Pengfei & Pan, Zhigang, 2022. "Extreme risk transmission among bitcoin and crude oil markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:46:y:2022:i:pa:s1544612321003573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.