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What drives Bitcoin’s price crash risk?

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  • Kalyvas, Antonios
  • Papakyriakou, Panayiotis
  • Sakkas, Athanasios
  • Urquhart, Andrew

Abstract

We examine the association of the Bitcoin price crash risk with economic uncertainty and behavioral factors. We show that economic uncertainty displays a negative and significant association with Bitcoin price crash risk, indicating that when economic uncertainty is high, the crash risk of Bitcoin is low. We also find that behavioral factors have a weak association with Bitcoin crash risk. Our results suggest that investors can hedge economic uncertainty by investing in Bitcoin.

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  • Kalyvas, Antonios & Papakyriakou, Panayiotis & Sakkas, Athanasios & Urquhart, Andrew, 2020. "What drives Bitcoin’s price crash risk?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:191:y:2020:i:c:s0165176519303908
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108777
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    9. Peng‐Fei Dai & John W. Goodell & Luu Duc Toan Huynh & Zhifeng Liu & Shaen Corbet, 2023. "Understanding the transmission of crash risk between cryptocurrency and equity markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 539-573, August.
    10. Zhao, Zhichao & Zhang, Yigang & Tang, Huimin & Liu, Peng & Wang, Xiaoran & Wang, Xizhe, 2024. "Corporate strategy and stock price crash risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Jiang, Yonghong & Wu, Lanxin & Tian, Gengyu & Nie, He, 2021. "Do cryptocurrencies hedge against EPU and the equity market volatility during COVID-19? – New evidence from quantile coherency analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
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    13. Grobys, Klaus & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc, 2022. "When Tether says “JUMP!” Bitcoin asks “How low?”," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    14. Burcu Kapar & Jose Olmo, 2021. "Analysis of Bitcoin prices using market and sentiment variables," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 45-63, January.
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    16. Sabeeh Ullah, 2023. "Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Financial Markets: a Global Perspective," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 982-1003, June.
    17. Nakagawa, Kei & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2022. "Market uncertainty and correlation between Bitcoin and Ether," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    18. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Ali Yavuz Polat & Hasan Tekin & Ahmet Semih Tunali, 2021. "Bitcoin-specific fear sentiment and bitcoin returns in the COVID-19 outbreak," Working Papers hal-03354930, HAL.
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    20. Koki, Constandina & Leonardos, Stefanos & Piliouras, Georgios, 2022. "Exploring the predictability of cryptocurrencies via Bayesian hidden Markov models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    21. Li, Yi & Zhang, Wei & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei, 2022. "The role of media coverage in the bubble formation: Evidence from the Bitcoin market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    22. A. V. Biju & Aparna Merin Mathew & P. P. Nithi Krishna & M. P. Akhil, 2022. "Is the future of bitcoin safe? A triangulation approach in the reality of BTC market through a sentiments analysis," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 275-290, December.
    23. Chowdhury, Md Shahedur R. & Damianov, Damian S. & Elsayed, Ahmed H., 2022. "Bubbles and crashes in cryptocurrencies: Interdependence, contagion, or asset rotation?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    24. Wei Zhang & Yi Li, 2023. "Liquidity risk and expected cryptocurrency returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 472-492, January.
    25. Emon Kalyan Chowdhury & Umme Humaira, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine conflict and investor psychology in financial markets," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 388-405, October.

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