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Betting on Bitcoin: Does gambling volume on the blockchain explain Bitcoin price changes?

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  • Conlon, Thomas
  • McGee, Richard J.

Abstract

We measure lottery appetite using historical gaming transaction data of Bitcoin holders. Changes in the volume spent on the most lottery-like gambling wallet explain 32% of variation in the returns to the BTC price pre-2016, but this effect disappears post-2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Conlon, Thomas & McGee, Richard J., 2020. "Betting on Bitcoin: Does gambling volume on the blockchain explain Bitcoin price changes?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:191:y:2020:i:c:s0165176519303659
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108727
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2018. "Time varying risk aversion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 403-421.
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    4. Alain Cohn & Jan Engelmann & Ernst Fehr & Michel André Maréchal, 2015. "Evidence for Countercyclical Risk Aversion: An Experiment with Financial Professionals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 860-885, February.
    5. Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 80-82.
    6. McGee, Richard J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2017. "Everyone’s a winner: The market impact of technologically advantaged agents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 95-98.
    7. Sean Foley & Jonathan R Karlsen & Tālis J Putniņš, 2019. "Sex, Drugs, and Bitcoin: How Much Illegal Activity Is Financed through Cryptocurrencies?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1798-1853.
    8. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vidal-Tomás, David, 2021. "Transitions in the cryptocurrency market during the COVID-19 pandemic: A network analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    2. Feng, Hao & Gao, Da & Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Does Bitcoin affect decomposed oil shocks differently? Evidence from a quantile-based framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Alexander Guzmán & Christian Pinto-Gutiérrez & María-Andrea Trujillo, 2021. "Trading Cryptocurrencies as a Pandemic Pastime: COVID-19 Lockdowns and Bitcoin Volume," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-15, July.
    4. Ma, Yu & Luan, Zhiqian, 2022. "Ethereum synchronicity, upside volatility and Bitcoin crash risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    5. Li, Yi & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "MAX momentum in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Blockchain; Bitcoin; Gambling; Lottery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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