IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/exehis/v97y2025ics0014498325000294.html

Smithian growth in the little divergence: a general equilibrium analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Chilosi, David
  • Ciccarelli, Carlo

Abstract

To address growing concerns on the representativeness of real wages, we generate new estimates of GDP pc in pre-industrial England and Italy, as well as new exploratory estimates for Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, Poland, Spain and Sweden, with Groth and Persson's (2016) general equilibrium model. Our results question the robustness of the current theoretical consensus on the “little divergence” and suggest an alternative hypothesis: north-western Europe saw faster Smithian growth than the rest of Europe after 1500.

Suggested Citation

  • Chilosi, David & Ciccarelli, Carlo, 2025. "Smithian growth in the little divergence: a general equilibrium analysis," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:97:y:2025:i:c:s0014498325000294
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101682
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014498325000294
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101682?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gregory Clark, 2005. "The Condition of the Working Class in England, 1209-2004," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(6), pages 1307-1340, December.
    2. John Dodgson, 2013. "Gregory King and the economic structure of early modern England: an input–output table for 1688," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(4), pages 993-1016, November.
    3. Allen, Robert C., 2009. "Engels' pause: Technical change, capital accumulation, and inequality in the british industrial revolution," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 418-435, October.
    4. Marianne Ward & John Devereux, 2021. "New Income Comparisons for the late Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Century," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(1), pages 222-247, March.
    5. Jane Humphries & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Unreal Wages? Real Income and Economic Growth in England, 1260–1850," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2867-2887.
    6. Leonardo Ridolfi, 2023. "Understanding pre-industrial wages and incomes: A reassessment of the evidence and new interpretations based on France and Italy," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 27-62.
    7. Subramanian, Shankar & Deaton, Angus, 1996. "The Demand for Food and Calories," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 133-162, February.
    8. Vittorio Daniele & Paolo Malanima, 2007. "Il prodotto delle regioni e il divario Nord-Sud in Italia (1861-2004)," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(2), pages 267-316, March-Apr.
    9. Giovanni Federico & Paolo Malanima, 2004. "Progress, decline, growth: product and productivity in Italian agriculture, 1000–2000," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 57(3), pages 437-464, August.
    10. Robert C. Allen & Jean-Pascal Bassino & Debin Ma & Christine Moll-Murata & Jan Luiten Van Zanden, 2011. "Wages, prices, and living standards in China, 1738–1925: in comparison with Europe, Japan, and India," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 64, pages 8-38, February.
    11. Gregory Clark, 2005. "The Condition of the Working Class in England, 1209-2004," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(6), pages 1307-1340, December.
    12. David Chilosi & Carlo Ciccarelli, 2022. "Evolving gaps: Occupational structure in southern and northern Italy, 1400–1861," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1349-1378, November.
    13. Giovanni Federico & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2014. "The ripples of the industrial revolution: exports, economic growth, and regional integration in Italy in the early nineteenth century," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 18(3), pages 349-369.
    14. Emanuele Felice, 2019. "The roots of a dual equilibrium: GDP, productivity, and structural change in the Italian regions in the long run (1871–2011)," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 23(4), pages 499-528.
    15. repec:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:10:p:2867-2887. is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Chilosi, David & Schulze, Max-Stephan & Volckart, Oliver, 2018. "Benefits of Empire? Capital Market Integration North and South of the Alps, 1350–1800," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(3), pages 637-672, September.
    17. Douglas Gollin & David Lagakos & Michael E. Waugh, 2014. "The Agricultural Productivity Gap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 939-993.
    18. Allen, Robert C., 2000. "Economic structure and agricultural productivity in Europe, 1300–1800," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, April.
    19. Chilosi, David, 2014. "Risky Institutions: Political Regimes and the Cost of Public Borrowing in Early Modern Italy," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 887-915, September.
    20. Federico, Giovanni & Nuvolari, Alessandro & Vasta, Michelangelo, 2019. "The Origins of the Italian Regional Divide: Evidence from Real Wages, 1861–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 63-98, March.
    21. Robert C. Allen, 2019. "Class structure and inequality during the industrial revolution: lessons from England's social tables, 1688–1867," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(1), pages 88-125, February.
    22. António Henriques & Nuno Palma, 2023. "Correction to: Comparative european institutions and the little divergence, 1385–1800," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 295-295, June.
    23. Paolo Malanima, 2013. "When did England overtake Italy? Medieval and early modern divergence in prices and wages," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 17(1), pages 45-70, February.
    24. Chilosi, David & Ciccarelli, Carlo, 2023. "Italy in the great divergence: what can we learn from Engel’s law?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 667, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    25. Judy Z. Stephenson, 2020. "Working days in a London construction team in the eighteenth century: evidence from St Paul's Cathedral," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(2), pages 409-430, May.
    26. Wallis, Patrick & Colson, Justin & Chilosi, David, 2018. "Structural Change and Economic Growth in the British Economy before the Industrial Revolution, 1500–1800," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(3), pages 862-903, September.
    27. Alfani, Guido, 2020. "Pandemics and asymmetric shocks: evidence from the history of plague in Europe and the Mediterranean," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 478, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    28. Guido Alfani, 2013. "Plague in seventeenth-century Europe and the decline of Italy: an epidemiological hypothesis," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 17(4), pages 408-430, November.
    29. Allen, Robert C., 2001. "The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 411-447, October.
    30. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2014:i:2:p:939-993. is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Mauro Rota & Jacob Weisdorf, 2021. "Italy and the little divergence in wages and prices: evidence from stable employment in rural areas," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(2), pages 449-470, May.
    32. Giacomo Gabbuti, 2021. "Labor shares and inequality: insights from Italian economic history, 1895–19701 [‘A paradise for profiteers’? The importance and treatment of profits during the first world war]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 25(2), pages 355-378.
    33. David Chilosi & Carlo Ciccarelli, 2021. "Southern and Northern Italy in the Great Divergence: New Perspectives from the Occupational Structure," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 47, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    34. Vittorio Daniele & Paolo Malanima, 2017. "Regional Wages and the North-South Disparity in Italy after the Unification," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 117-158.
    35. Alessandro Nuvolari & Mattia Ricci, 2013. "Economic Growth in England, 1250-1850: Some New Estimates Using a Demand Side Approach," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 31-54.
    36. David Chilosi & Carlo Ciccarelli, 2023. "Italy in the Great Divergence: What Can We Learn from Engel’s Law?," CEIS Research Paper 562, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Jul 2023.
    37. Chilosi, David & Murphy, Tommy E. & Studer, Roman & Tunçer, A. Coşkun, 2013. "Europe's many integrations: Geography and grain markets, 1620–1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 46-68.
    38. Jan Luiten van Zanden & Emanuele Felice, 2022. "Benchmarking the Middle Ages: fifteenth century Tuscany in European perspective [Plague in seventeenth century Europe and the decline of Italy: an epidemiological hypothesis]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(4), pages 535-554.
    39. Malanima, Paolo, 2011. "The long decline of a leading economy: GDP in central and northern Italy, 1300–1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 169-219, August.
    40. van Zanden, Jan Luiten & Bolt, Jutta, 2021. "Two concerns about the interpretation of the estimates of historical national accounts before 1850," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 294-300, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Chilosi & Carlo Ciccarelli, 2022. "Evolving gaps: Occupational structure in southern and northern Italy, 1400–1861," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1349-1378, November.
    2. Rota, Mauro & Spinesi, Luca, 2024. "Economic growth before the Industrial Revolution: Rural production and guilds in the European Little Divergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. David Chilosi & Carlo Ciccarelli, 2021. "Southern and Northern Italy in the Great Divergence: New Perspectives from the Occupational Structure," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 47, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Robert C. Allen, 2021. "The Interplay among Wages, Technology, and Globalization: The Labour Market and Inequality, 1620-2020," Working Papers 20210065, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Jun 2021.
    5. van Bavel, Bas, 2016. "The Invisible Hand?: How Market Economies have Emerged and Declined Since AD 500," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199608133.
    6. Sara Horrell, 2023. "Household consumption patterns and the consumer price index, England, 1260–1869," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1023-1050, November.
    7. Claridge, Jordan & Delabastita, Vincent & Gibbs, Spike, 2024. "(In-kind) Wages and labour relations in the Middle Ages: It’s not (all) about the money," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Leonor Freire Costa & António Henriques & Nuno Palma, 2022. "Anatomy of a Premodern State," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2208, Economics, The University of Manchester, revised May 2024.
    9. Chilosi, David & Ciccarelli, Carlo, 2023. "Italy in the great divergence: what can we learn from Engel’s law?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 667, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    10. Weisdorf, Jacob & Rota, Mauro, 2020. "Italy and the Industrial Revolution: Evidence from Stable Employment in Rural Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 14652, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Broadberry Stephen, 2012. "Recent Developments in the Theory of Very Long Run Growth: A Historical Appraisal," Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, De Gruyter, vol. 53(1), pages 277-306, May.
    12. Giovanni Federico & Alessandro Nuvolari & Leonardo Ridolfi & Michelangelo Vasta, 2021. "The race between the snail and the tortoise: skill premium and early industrialization in Italy (1861–1913)," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 15(1), pages 1-42, January.
    13. Giovanni Federico & Alessandro Nuvolari & Michelangelo Vasta, 2023. "Inequality in Pre‐Industrial Europe (1260–1850): New Evidence From the Labor Share," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(2), pages 347-375, June.
    14. Nikolaj Malinowski & Jan Luiten van Zanden, 2015. "National income and its distribution in preindustrial Poland in a global perspective," Working Papers 0076, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    15. Robert C. Allen, 2020. "Spinning their wheels: a reply to Jane Humphries and Benjamin Schneider," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1128-1136, November.
    16. Vincent J. Geloso, 2019. "Distinct within North America: living standards in French Canada, 1688–1775," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(2), pages 277-321, May.
    17. Roger Fouquet & Stephen Broadberry, 2015. "Seven Centuries of European Economic Growth and Decline," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 227-244, Fall.
    18. Ericsson, Johan & Molinder, Jakob, 2018. "A Workers’ Revolution in Sweden? Exploring Economic Growth and Distributional Change with Detailed Data on Construction Workers’ Wages, 1831–1900," Lund Papers in Economic History 181, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    19. Vincent Geloso & Peter T. Leeson, 2020. "Are Anarcho-Capitalists Insane? Medieval Icelandic Conflict Institutions in Comparative Perspective," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(6), pages 957-974.
    20. Stephen Broadberry, 2024. "British Economic Growth and Development," Springer Books, in: Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), Handbook of Cliometrics, edition 3, pages 951-986, Springer.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:97:y:2025:i:c:s0014498325000294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622830 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.